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After a $50 drop in gold price, what to expect from Monday?

After the dramatic drop in the price of gold at the end of the week by around $50 per ounce, an interesting start to the new week is shaping up. Levels above $2,315 per ounce provide strong support for gold. If the price of gold breaks through $2310, we can expect a serious downward movement towards the price of $2285. But in general, the scenario of an upward movement from the first day of the new week is more realistic. Our advice is to keep an eye on the $2310/15 level and buy at those levels. If a breakout occurs, exit the position.

Two factors are driving the good data for the US economy

The very good data on the US economy continues to keep the dollar in a good position. On Friday, all 3 of the 4 major fundamentals came in positive - better than expected. Newly created jobs rose to 272K from 165K in the previous month. However, does this correspond to reality, as among studies and polls, people talk about their increasingly difficult life in the United States. However, two things remain positive in the economy and will definitely be long-term drivers of the largest economy. This is the military industrial complex, working at full strength in maintaining the war in Ukraine, as well as selling weapons to almost all of Europe plus Israel and the Middle East. The second driving factor behind the strong American economy is massive amounts of money printing. This will continue until the BRICS countries completely stop working with dollars. And until then, there will probably be another 2-3 years of dollar dominance. Follow us for accurate signals and trading strategies at www.world-signals.com

The Bank of Canada has begun cutting interest rates

The Bank of Canada today cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points from 5.00% to 4.75%. This is a clear signal to other banks that inflation is decreasing and it is time for lower interest rates. In this way, servicing the debt will be easier. But in reality, in many countries of the Western world, inflation remains high with no prospect of stopping. If other banks follow the example of the Bank of Canada, the reduction in interest rates will be between 0.5 and 0.25%.

What to expect after oil crashes over $7?

For the last 4 days, the price of oil fell by more than $7. This is due to the actions of OPEC+ and rather to the ambiguity with the reductions of the production quotas of the individual countries. Some countries, for example, will even have an increase in oil production, such as the United Arab Emirates, an increase planned for 2025. Inflation in much of the world, especially in the United States, is affecting consumption, which will continue to decline. Only the entry of the economy on military lines would quickly drive the price of oil higher. But there will most likely be no major escalation of the conflict in Ukraine until the November elections in the United States. The expectation of world-signals.com is that the price of American oil will drop even to $68 and stay below $80 until the end of the summer.

This week's EURUSD strategy with support and resistance levels

The start of the new week begins with a holiday in the United States, which is Memorial Day. But on the other hand, this morning we have important data on the German economy, IFO - Business Climate, and lately the data from Europe is affecting the currency markets much more actively compared to a few months earlier. After the EURUSD peak of 1.0895 on May 16, a very smooth downward correction followed to end the week at 1.0845 levels. Our prediction at World-Signals.com is that this smooth trend of dollar strengthening against the euro will continue in the coming week. We expect to see EURUSD levels of 1.0770, while resistance levels for the week go to 1.0865 with possible moves to 1.0910.

What will the intervention of the Bank of Japan lead to?

The Japanese Yen literally collapsed today to levels above 160 Yen to the dollar. The Bank of Japan had no choice but to intervene in the market. And the bank actually acts with a strong intervention towards the end of the Asian session. The yen had reached as high as 160.32 (USDJPY), after which strong intervention by the central bank lowered the rate to 155-157 levels. The last USDJPY levels of 160.00 and above were back in 1986. The yen has been in a constant process of depreciation for the past 12 years, and this trend has intensified after the beginning of 2022. Despite the strong support for the yen from the Bank of Japan, a few hours later the yen already lost about 180 pips. World-Signals.com expects the yen to continue depreciating regardless of central bank support. Levels of 160 yen to the dollar are realistic for the beginning and middle of May.

Good Eurozone data slightly supported the Euro, but more importantly...

Good data for Germany and later for the Eurozone moved the market during the morning European session. The data helped the Euro take a 50-pips lead against the Dollar, but that lead later narrowed to around 25 pips. Investors tend to use data from the United States instead of the Eurozone, so they await today's important data on the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April and the S&P Global Services PMI also for April. In general, World-Signals.com expects a stop in the growth of the Dollar at the levels of 1.06 (EURUSD) and a smooth movement upwards to 1.08 in the coming days.

While oil and gold set records, the dollar is consolidating against the Euro

The dollar remains steady against the Euro this week. But the same cannot be said for oil and the price of gold. The dollar continues to lose against the precious metal, which is setting new records day after day. And oil is about to reach $100 levels, as Russia has promised after becoming the real OPEC+ leading country. Since both economies on both sides of the Atlantic are sufficiently vulnerable to contemporary challenges, the dollar and euro will continue to weaken, respectively. What is seen from technical analysis is that Euro/Dollar will continue in the 1.0770 - 1.0870 consolidation for about a week, after which we expect a break out of these levels. World-Signals.com recommends a narrow trade at the levels around 1.08 with target exits up to 40 pips from the opening point.


 

 

 

 

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