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The latest news:


BofA expects Brent oil at $ 100 in 2022

Analysts at BofA Global Research view the decline in oil prices following the OPEC + decision to increase production as a bargaining opportunity and still expect Brent futures to rise to $ 100 a barrel next year.

The average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 will be $ 68 per barrel, WTI crude oil - $ 65 per barrel, according to the bank's analysts. Futures on these marks are expected to average $ 75 and $ 71, respectively, in 2022. The global oil deficit will be 1.4 million barrels per day in 2021 and 400,000 barrels per day in 2022, analysts say.

According to the bank, the new OPEC + agreement simultaneously supports and reduces both upward and downward risks for oil prices. In the next 18 months, this group of producer states will become a key player in the oil market.

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The higher U.S. consumer price may support the dollar in a short term period

Inflation climbs for third straight month: U.S. consumer prices rose 5.4% in June from a year ago, again higher than expected.

The dollar became stronger after today's key report for U.S. inflation. The Dollar gained about 55 pips after the release of the news. This year expects to see the highest inflation in the last decade. As the dollar gains today by this news in a mid and long-term period the dollar may lose against the major currencies. But the higher inflation is a signal that Fed policy to hike U.S. interest rates is close. The Fed last month announced that it will make two interest rate hikes with the minimum 0.25% but this high inflation may push the Fed to make higher than expected rates hike.

At the same time the inflation in the biggest European economy is 2.3% the same as expected and the same as in prior month of year base. The Germany Consumer Price Index was released earlier today of 2.3% of year base and 0.4% for June the same as expected and prior month too. For tomorrow (Wednesday July 14th) the most important event is Fed's Chair Powell testifying schedule or 16:00 GMT.

The news for U.S. Consumer prices may strengthen the Dollar in a short term period. Our prediction is to see EURUSD at levels of 1.1600.

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EURUSD trading strategy ahead key events

During the current European session the trend of EURUSD will change. The current downward trend started last Friday and is about to end today. The Dollar gained about 130-140 pips in this period of 4 days. For today the key event is ISM Manufacturing PMI(May) at 14:00 GMT. But overall the key event that everyone is waiting for is Friday Non-farm payroll report. It is expecting a positive report that may support the dollar. The event is already generated by the market. But till the event expects to see temporary recovery of the Euro as possible levels up to 1.1885.

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