The dollar retreated about 80 pips against the Euro in anticipation of Donald Trump's first decisions. The inauguration of the new president of the United States is currently underway. In just a few hours we can expect Trump's first steps. And although the dollar temporarily weakened, in just a few days the upward trend of the dollar will strengthen. Good luck to Donald Trump!

Already on the first working day of 2025, the trend we talked about earlier became clear. Namely, that the dollar will take the lead over the Euro and parity will come soon. At the same time, resource prices will start moving up. This applies especially to gold and other precious metals. Electricity is the other resource that will be extremely valuable, especially for Europe and especially the countries of the European Union. Europe is moving quickly towards the abyss and there will be no one to save it. The only one who talks about change and has the opportunity to save Europe is Elon Musk. It remains for the population of Europe to demand change. In the last 4 years after the pandemic and with the introduction of sanctions against Russia, Europe has shot itself and does not want to go and stitch up its wound. It continues with the policy of destruction. Our advice remains the same, invest in metals, do not invest in Europe. If you want to produce, go to Asia, the United States, or countries outside the Euro and the European Union.

The holding of inflation in the United States at 0.3%, as expected, helped to end the rise in gold. Then followed the reduction in the main interest rate in the Eurozone, which further helped to stop the rising prices of gold. The yellow metal reached $2726 on the spot market on Thursday, its best level in more than a month, but then the metal sold off. This week, gold is likely to hold at its current prices before rising again before the end of the year. However, a cut in the main interest rate in the United States is expected next week. This event has already been generated in the price of gold. The euphoria from Trump's victory is passing and it is time for a more realistic assessment of the price of the yellow metal.

EURUSD - Daily analysis and trading strategy. The new week begins with the G20 meeting in Brazil. It is possible to outline new directions for the development of the world, especially in the hotspots Ukraine and Israel. On Monday, the ECB's President Lagarde speech is expected, where it should become clear whether there will be a change in interest rate policy in Europe after the election of Trump. Lagarde is likely to hint at a cut in the key interest rate. The tariffs that the new team in the White House is expected to introduce to Europe and especially to its industrial part, such as Germany, are already having an impact. Factories will not be able to compete with Chinese and American goods. In addition, the market for goods from Europe is constantly shrinking, and the quality is falling. Currently, 41.5% of German companies report a lack of orders. This percentage will increase significantly in early 2025. A number of manufacturers from Europe are thinking about where to go. Possible locations are the United States, China, and possibly other countries such as Turkey and Southeast Asian countries. The euro has no chance in the near term. The probability of Euro/Dollar parity is very likely even before January 20, 2025 (Donald Trump's Inauguration). Therefore, our strategy remains to sell the euro with the aim of parity and down. If you are entering the market now, wait for the slight upward correction of 50-80 pips to re-open a short position. For this week, we expect the dollar to take a lead of 100-130 pips against the Euro.

As the elections in the United States approach, we increasingly begin to pay attention to geopolitics, which affects the currency markets, and especially the dollar, at the expense of technical and fundamental analysis. In reality, only one working week remains until the all-important elections, where the world decides which way it will go next. Escalation of the two major conflicts into full-scale wars is a completely possible scenario. This would affect the United States depending on how involved the US would be. A further escalation of the wars could strengthen the dollar as US industry would produce more of the real good - weapons, as opposed to peace, where services are the driving force of the US economy. We expect new developments in the last days of the campaign, be it new attacks against Trump or escalation in the Middle East, after another batch of missile attacks against Tehran (Iran). On Monday, we don't really have any important data for the United States or Europe. On Tuesday we expect data on Consumer Confidence, Housing Price Index and JOLTS Job Openings. Big expectations for fundamental news from the United States are expected in the second half of the week, with the important Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) report at the end. Expectations for Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) are for a sharp decline in the numbers to weaker jobs data. That is why the dollar stopped the EURUSD downward trend in the last almost month. Thus, from the great growth of the dollar (EURUSD) from 1.12 at the end of September, to 1.0761 on October 23, 2024. This trend ended in the 43rd week of this year (the last week) to pass into expectations of a decline in the dollar and return to levels above 1.08. Thus, the downtrend is over and a break below 1.0760 is unlikely until at least Friday. Use the moment to trade in a neutral trend with a move of 25-40 pips or an uptrend in anticipation of levels above 1.0860. Let's also mention the BRICS meeting, which leaves the Dollar as the leading world currency in international payments for now, but more and more the Dollar will give way to the power of China, Russia and the rest of the world.

Throughout the month of October, the dollar grew against the Euro. In the three weeks of this month, the dollar gained more than 330 pips. For most of the month, economic data for the United States was upbeat. By all accounts, the US economy looks set to continue to outperform that of Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. In the last two days of the 42nd week (October 17-18), the trend seems to have broken and the dollar's rally has ended. Monday is actually the day where it will be possible to confirm that the downward trend has ended. On Monday October 21, there are no important data for the economy of the United States, but we have data with an average weight for the markets from Germany, namely the Producer Price Index, where data for the month of September is expected to be -0.2%. And since we expect negative inflation compared to the previous month, it is a more likely scenario in which investors will continue to bet on the dollar. Later this week we will learn a lot of important data about the Eurozone, as well as key statements from the ECB. Thus, for Monday, October 21, we expect a light test of the EURUSD levels of 1.0890, but it will probably not be broken and a neutral trend will be established for the day with the possibility of a new rise of the dollar to 1.0820. For the last 2.5 months, the EURUSD level of 1.0810 is the lowest and was reached on Thursday, October 17.