After Wednesday Fed's comments for slow down of U.S. economy the chance for new interest rates rise move forward in the time. The new interest rates correction may happen in 2017. In spite the positive U.S. Unemployment rate to 4.9% the Non-farm payrolls report were worse than expecting. The investors sell dollars and probably will continue this week. The key economic events this week are schedule for Friday at 9:00 GMT GDP for the Euro Zone probably the report will show slow down of E.U. economy. In United States the key event is Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT on Friday and Fed's Yellen testifies on Wednesday but with not fix time for now. The technical analysis show very strong resistance at 1.1240 as the break above will follow levels up 1.1290. Otherwise is good to use 1.1240 as stop losses for short positions. Currently the support is formed at 1.1100. World-Signals.com trading strategy is to trade at the first part of the week within the trading range and to expect break above one of the levels.
The new business week start with strong dollar after Bank of Japan cut interest rates to -0.10%. In Monday at 16:00 GM the key trader's focus is for ECB President Draghi's Speech. In Wednesday at 8:00 GMT is expecting Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting. The both events are important after BoJ new interest rates war. ECB President Draghi's Speech continues on Thursday at 8 GMT also. But the most important events this week are expecting from United States in Friday 13:30 GMT. The events are U.S. Nonfarm payroll that is expecting below 200K while last month the report was 292K and 275K for the private payrolls. At the same time is expecting U.S. Unemployment Rate at 5.0% the same like the last month. The technical analysis shows that the support is formed at 1.0780 and 1.0710 while resistance is at 1.0940. World-Signals.com trading strategy is to sell close to the resistance level for target below 1.0780.
Last week the dollar gains against the Euro with more than 110 pips. The last hours of last business week showed that the dollar will back to the winning track. The major focus this week is Fed Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday 19:00 GMT and Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference at 19:30 GMT. This is the first meeting of FOMC this year and they will keep the interest rates unchanged at 0.50% but will continue to focus over the mix economic data. The economic focus in United States continues with Thursday key Durable Orders at 13:30 GMT with expecting negative data from December. In the last day of the week is expecting very important data for Europe and United States. In Europe is expecting CPI data at 10:00 GMT and GDP in USA at 13:30 GMT. The technical analysis shows downward directing for EURUSD. The first EURUSD resistance is formed at 1.0840 as the support level is at 1.0710. The trading strategy which will follow World-Signals.com is to sell close to the first resistance level at 1.0840 with target to 1.07 and below.
In the first two weeks of 2016 EURUSD trading remain into neutral direction. The Fed interest rates decision in December remain the major factor for the EURUSD trading. There are not idea when will follow new interest rates hike. This week starts with a holiday in United States - Martin L. King's Birthday. In Wednesday is the most important USA event for the week CPI and Core CPI. On Thursday at 12:45 GMT is the ECB Interest Rate Decision. It is not expecting changes in the current level of interest rates at 0.05%. The events that will cause influence over the markets coming from Iran and China. The end of Iran sanctions open the world to a new big gamer and China's economic and exchange rates strategy. World-Signals.com trading strategy this week is trade within a short trading range because we expect consolidation of EURUSD at 1.09-1.10 as is possible temporary levels up to 1.1060.
The last year was almost flat for the major U.S. Stock index. World-Signals.com expect serious change in the trend and Dow Jones Industrial may fall this year to levels since 2011. Dow Jones top level was at 18364 in May 2015 and may down to levels of 11000 in the next one, one and a half years. World-Signals.com recommend the investors to sell their shares in the first months of 2016.
The first business week of a New Year is very important for the trend in the year. It is a key trading week that could change the current trend. In the last trading day for 2015 the dollar shows his power and may continue take advantage against the euro and other major currencies. The dollar is supported by the expecting key fundamental events this week. It is expecting positive news for ISM Index and ISM Services. The key U.S. Non-farm payroll report is expecting at the same levels like the last month at about 200K, while the Unemployment rate to stay at 5.0%. The hikes of the U.S. interest rates continue to dominant as the investors prefer the dollar instead the problems in the Euro Zone. Europe may continue suffer by the refugees that will cause new financial problems and new spending for safety. World-Signals.com trading strategy is to invest in dollars this week and at the first months of the year.
The traders focus this week is for one event only - The Fed interest rates decision. It is widely expecting Fed to hike the interest rates for first time since 2006. The event is expecting for Wednesday at 7:00 PM GMT. It is expecting very strong volatile market at 7 PM. Currently the interest rates are at 0.25% as is expecting to rise to 0.375% or 0.50%. After the Fed decision 30-minutes later starts the pressconference that will be followed by the trades very carefully. The other key events this week are CPI at 1:30 PM GMT on Tuesday, Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting on Wednesday at 8 AM GMT, also CPI for Euro Zone on Wednesday at 10:00 AM GMT. World-Signals.com trading strategy by the last week shows that we expected levels of 1.1090. Currently the top level was at 1.1042 as is possible correction upward to our target by the last week. If the Fed hike is minimal the dollar may continue to lose against the euro up to 1.13 and above while strong Fed interest rates hike may support the dollar for levels of 1.07.
After the ECB decision this week the market is focus over the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Although that there is full week with other events the market will focus over the expecting Fed interest rates decision. It is probably the most important event this month or probably the key U.S. event in the economic for 2015 if Fed hike the interest rates. World-Signals.com expects euro/dollar to back to the levels below 1.07 in the coming week or after two weeks. The events this week that will move the markets are the Fed rumours for the interest rates politic followed by Friday's fundamental news for Retail Sales, PPI and Core PPI. A Thursday report for U.S. Treasury Budget is also a key event. In Europe the key events that will moves the market starts on Monday at 7 AM GMT with Germany Industrial Production that is expecting support for the Euro with positive news. In Euro Zone on Tuesday GDP report is expecting at 9 AM GMT at 1.6% at the same like a prior period. EURUSD may raise up to 1.1090 first but as overall World-Signals.com expects slowly recovery of the dollar.
The dollar continue to take advantage against the euro. The terrorist attacks are not the major for the strong dollar. The investors continue to expects Fed's Interest rates decision in December. The chances for change in the interest rates politic rises. World-Signals.com early inform that Fed will not rise the interest rates this year but the chances really rises. World-Signals.com predicts 40% chance for interest rates rise with 0.25% instead 15% chances a month ago. World-Signals.com expects to see EURUSD trading levels below 1.04 at the end of this month.
There will be no real stimulus for the Euro Zone economy this year. Therefore the euro fall against the dollar today more than 200 pips. World-Signals.com expects to see EURUSD in the levels below 1.10 in a short time. The trading strategy which World-Signals.com will follow is to sell euro against dollars.
EURUSD trading in the next 3-days will continue to trade within the range of 1.1110 and 1.1300. It is widely expecting the key US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate reports that will provide signals whether the Federal Reserve will start with interest rates correction into upward direction. World-Signals.com recommend to trade within the trading range till Friday morning in United States. In a better than expecting reports EURUSD may test the psychological level of 1.10.
On Thursday September 17th 2015 at 2:00 PM Eastern Time is a very important moment for all financial markets when is expecting Federal Reserve Interest rates decisions. One month ago was widely expecting Fed to change the interest rates for first time since 2009 and first rise since 2006. World-Signals.com does not expect Fed to raise the interest rates at least 6-months ahead. It is expecting bad situation in United States if Fed raise the interest rates. The markets already generate the expectation Fed to leave the interest rates unchanged. So World-Signals.com expects strong dollar against the Euro and new move below 1.10.
The Crude Oil in the next couple of days will continue into downward direction. The recovery of Crude Oil New York is temporary. After the new record low level of $39.55 and the follow recovery to $43.14 World-Signals.com expects to see levels close to $40-$41. World-Signals.com trading strategy is to sell at current levels at about $43.
The biggest oil exporters do not want to cut the production. At the same time Iran will start to offers crude oil for the world market that cause these low prices. World-Signals.com expect to see attack of crude oil prices below the record low level of $42.01 since March 2015. The crude oil prices will reach to the record as the chances for attack below the level of $42 rises. There are no one big producer who plan to cut the quotas for oil shortly.
The Gold in the next couple of weeks will continue to trade within a short range. World-Signals.com expects to see Gold price at levels close to $1130 a record low level for the last 5-years. The spot Gold price reach to $1130 in November 2014 and prior this level happens in April 2010. World-Signals.com recommend to trade within the trading range $1150 and $1210 with target close to $1130 after couple of weeks.
Crude Oil recovery will continue slowly with target at $66.50. World-Signals.com recommend to open long positions for Crude Oil New York. The expectations of World-Signals.com for level of $66.50 may happens at the end of this month.
The major fears for the Euro coming from Greece debt. Can we expect Grexit (Greece exit from the EuroZone monetary union)? World-Signals.com do not expects Grexit. The chances for Grexit are too low and Greece will keep the Euro. Therefore World-Signals.com expects slowly recovery of the Euro against the dollar and other currencies. The trading strategy is to buy Euro against the dollar in long-term target at the mid of the summer.
The dollar power end for now. World-Signals.com expects to see bad days for the dollar. The data from United States do not support the dollar. In the next couple of days the dollar may down against the euro to 1.1350. World-Signals.com recommend to buy Euro against the dollar at levels below 1.1130 with target at the end of the week or latest next week at 1.1350.
There are many key economic data this week. In United States is starting with Consumer Confidence in Tuesday, while in Wednesday is Fed Interest rates decision. The interest rates probably will remain at 0.25% but the time when the rates will rise closer. Also on Wednesday is the key GDP-Adv. for the first quarter. World-Signals.com focus is over the continue problems with Greece debt. World-Signals.com recommend to trade within 150-200 pips trading range between 1.0730 and 1.0930. If EURUSD break above 1.0950 is possible attack over the level of 1.10 with target 1.1060.
In World-Signals.com analysis since April 2nd was talking about for two scenarios for EURUSD. The geopolitik factors are the most important and these factors moves the markets not the fundamentals. World-Signals.com expects to see EURUSD at levels of 1.00 and below parity at the beginning of May 2015. The trading strategy is to sell EURUSD with target within one or one and a half month at level about and below 1.00.
For the dollar the chances to reach to parity against the euro stay low. World-Signals.com analysis shows that there are two scenarios for the trading of EURUSD this year. In the first one euro/dollar record is already reached at 1.0461 by March 13th 2015. This is (1.0461) the bottom if not follows new escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and if there are not new sanctions against the Russia. World-Signals.com expects to see trading levels of EURUSD below 1.00 if the conflict in Ukraine escalates again and there are new elements in the sanctions that will cause new negative effect over the Euro Zone economy.
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may stop the rising dollar. The new bank that will be founded on March 31st by China and many other countries include France, Germany, Italy, Japan also United Kingdom and others is on the way to change the invesments worldwide. Also the new bank may stop the dollar gains. World-Signals.com said that the forecasts for EURUSD at 1:1 (parity) may not happen. All over the world analyzers expects to see EURUSD at parity but the tendency is negative for the dollar in long-term. World-Signals.com recommend to avoid dollar investments for long-term. The dollar may remain strong but after few months EURUSD may back at levels of 1.20.
World-Signals.com expects to see new record low level of USOil below the key bottom of $43.56 by January 29th 2015. The oil price in Friday close was few cents below $45 as the test below the key support level of $43.56 may happens this week or next week. World-Signals.com recommend to sell with target close to $40 or even below this month.
World-Signals.com forecasts for EURUSD from February 26th for level of 1.07 in March is on the way to happens. The dollar rises after the positive news from U.S. Non-farm payroll reports. But World-Signals.com sees that the strong dollar is a effect by the expecting new problems for the Euro and the Euro Zone. There are many comments that Greece will leave the Euro Zone and may followed by other countries. The negative data for the Euro Zone growth and the continue sanctions against Russia will continue to affect over the weak Euro and to help the dollar rise.
After the positive economic news from United States today for the Durable Orders the dollar starts for new gains and new records. World-Signals.com expect to see the dollar to break below 1.1096 that is the record low level in the last 12-years. The break below 1.1096 will open the way for levels of 1.07 that may happens in March 2015.
Since July 2014 the Crude Oil started into negative direction. World-Signals.com see the end of this process in February 2015. After 7 consecutive months of down trend for Crude Oil in February 2015 the trend may turn into up. Crude Oil (New York) prices in the end of January down to $43.56 that is the bottom for the moment. Next week World-Signals.com expects to see neutral trading. The best moment to open long position is $48.00 - $48.60 as the levels between $53 and $54 is the best to place short positions.
The Crude Oil prices may continue to fall in the next few weeks after the recovery from the bottom at $43.56 (New York) from January 29th 2015 said by World-Signals.com. The recovery of Crude Oil prices continue up to $54.21 and may fall again close to the levels of $44. World-Signals.com expects to see the prices for Crude Oil (New York) between $45 and $51 for this and next month. The chances for break below $43.56 is 25% while the chance for prices above $54.21 is less than 10%.
The US Crude Oil reached the bottom that World-Signals.com predicted since the begining of December at $45. Our forecasts by December 9th (www.world-signals.com/forexnews/display-item.php?newsid=159) happend. The US Crude Oil fall to $43.56 as the bottom will be here at the levels about $43 and $44. The chances for Crude Oil prices below $40 is minimal. World-Signals.com do not see chance for Crude Oil recovery soon. The prices in February will move in the range between $45 and $52.
World-Signals.com expects to see recovery of the Euro against the Swiss Franc in the next few days. The recovery may reach the levels of 1.0550 and then to reverse down below 1.00. So first World-Signals.com recommend to hold long EURCHF positions at least to the next week. The recovery process of the Euro may continue next week too but will end at levels between 1.05 and 1.07.
ECB starts to generate inflation in the Euro Zone after Thursday bank decision for QE launching. ECB target in 2015 is for inflation in the Euro Zone of 2.00%. World-Signals.com analyses show that these stimulus will be efficient but the inflation at the end of 2015 may exceed 2.00%. World-Signals.com predict that the inflation in 2015 in Europe may rise to 3.25%. The major factors that will push the inflation are the cheap Euro and the starting rise of Gold. Meanwhile World-signals.com forecasts for EURUSD at 1.14 happens even earlier than our expectations in February. The time for parity is on the way and may happen in two months time.
World-Signals.com expects to see the prices for Crude Oil at levels about $100 but first it will happens a new day like Swiss Thursday. The dollar rises at the first half of 2015 will continue but at the end of 2015 or beginning of 2016 the dollar may trading against the Swiss Franc for 0.45 (USDCHF 0.45). At the same time the Euro will continue down looking for a bottom. World-Signals.com expects dark future for the dollar and very dark for the euro.
The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly scrapped its cap on the CHF as EURCHF at 1.20 goes into history. SNB try to keep the franc as cut the interest rates from the negative -0.25 to -0.75%. World-Signals.com expects after that decision Swiss Franc to rise below 1.00 against the Euro. Currently EURCHF is trading at 1.0380 but World-Signals.com expects levels to 0.95 in February 2015. In spite the CHF negative interest rates of -0.75% the investors will continue to use Swiss Franc for investments.
EURUSD continue downtrend as our forecasts earlier for new record levels. This time EURUSD is at 9-years record low level. Last time when EURUSD trading was at levels below 1.18 was at the beginning of 2006. World-Signals.com expect to see levels below 1.14 in a period of 1-month. Investors all over the world continue to play at safe as with the dollar. In 2015 World-Signals.com see a chance for parity between the euro and dollar. We recommend to use all up corrections to sell EURUSD.
The weak Euro push the Gold price to rise to a record level for the last 16 months. World-Signals.com expects weak Euro in the next few months as by this reason XAUEUR will continue to rise from the current level of 1024. The Gold price in Euro may rise close to 1100 in the period February - March. At the same time the Gold price in Dollars is almost stable at the levels of $1200. Although that the dollar will continue to rise World-Signals.com expects XAUUSD at the levels of $1200.
Crude Oil below $50 for first time in the last 6-years. For first time the Crude Oil prices down below $50 in New York. The last time when we saw prices below $50 was April 2009. World-Signals.com since the begining of October predicted Crude Oil prices below $50. The forecasts was for prices between $45 and $50. In a history view the Crude Oil prices in New York was at $33 in February 2009. The identical by the same way the oil prices down from $146 to $33 for a very short time in 2008-2009. But for the difference than 2009 World-Signals.com expects the prices to remain at the levels below $50 for longer time. The bottom is not reached and may go below $45 or even below $40. World-Signals.com recommend to sell Crude Oil with target below $45.
World-Signals.com makes forecast for EURUSD movement in 2015. After the top of EURUSD at 1.6038 in July 2008 follow a down movement to 1.1875 in June 2010. In May 2014 EURUSD started in bearish. In the first half of 2015 World-Signals.com sees EURUSD to keep bearish. The test of 1.1875 the key support level will be successfull. It is possible temporary trading at the levels of 1.18-1.19 as the target in April for EURUSD is 1.11 - 1.14. There are a lot of scenarios after April that can change the trading dramatically to parity or even below parity also is possible euro-dollar fall to 1.40. At the moment the dollar is strong but at the the second half of the year is possible weakness for the both currency.
A new attack for low Crude Oil prices started today. World-Signals.com predicted that situation with new record low levels of Crude Oil prices. The new record from today is $52.89 and will break down shortly again. The last Crude Oil (New York) record was at $53.59 since December 16th. World-Signals.com expect to see levels below $50 per barrel at the start of 2015 as the prices may fall to $40-$44 in 2015. In our earlier forecasts we predicted average Crude Oil (New York) price for 2015 at $47.
World-Signals.com expects to see USDJPY trading into upward direction. After the temporary bottom at 115.55 and the top at 121.84 we expect to see level up to 125.00 till the end of the year or latest in the first days of 2015. The dollar will remain strong as the investors will prefer USDollar instead the Yen. World-Signals.com see as strong support the levels of about 117.70.
The investors who are looking for a stability will be necessary to find another currency after the decision of the Swiss National Bank to cut the key interest rates into negative territory. The key interest rates in Switzerland is -0.25%. World-Signals.com expects the investors interest in Swiss Franc to cut down. The half of the investors will remain with Swiss Franc as the other half will start investing in other instruments like Gold, Asian currencies like Chinese Yuan, Singapore Dollar, Hong Kong Dollar and others. EUR/CHF down to 1.1990 below the key 1.20 level as the Swiss National Bank react very fast with cut the interest rates. After that the price moves to 1.2096. World-Signals.com expects slowly recovery of the Euro against the Swiss Franc in the next days.
Crude Oil very fast move down to World-Signals.com first target for barrel at $55. Till the end of the year the prices for Crude Oil may down to level of $44. The end target for Crude Oil New York price is between $38 and $42. World-Signals.com forecasts for year 2015 is for Crude Oil prices between $38 and $58. The average prices for Crude Oil for 2015 is $47.
Crude Oil in New York break below the key psychological level of $60.00 per barrel. The prices continue to fall after strong attack against the prices. These attacks happens as usual during the U.S. session. The price will continue to fall as the next target set by World-Signals.com is $45-$50. The major factor for the low Crude Oil prices is the geopolitics. World-Signals.com see chances these low levels of Crude Oil to continue more than our first expectations less than a year. For the moment World-Signals.com analysis show that the prices below $60 may continue few years up to 5-years.
Crude Oil prices may fall to $45-$50 in 1-2 months time. The Crude Oil prices in New York with a new 5 and 1/2-years record low level. The oil prices break below $63.71 and down to $62.23. World-Signals.com forecasts happens for break below $63.71. The down movement will continue after short pause. World-Signals.com recommend to use this pause to open new short position with target 300 pips down below $60.00. In the next 1-2 months World-Signals.com expect Crude Oil prices at levels between $45 and $50.
Crude Oil prices hit 5 and a half years record low level after the OPEC meeting in Vienna. OPEC remains the oil production quota at the same level. World-Signals.com couple of months ago predict a price below $65. The current record is from today at $63.71 for the Crude Oil in New York. There are many producers and low consumption right now that push the prices down. World-Signals.com forecasts is temporary recovery of the oil prices up to $67-$69 and new test below $63.71 next week.
Crude Oil prices (New York) test the key support level at $73.24 a record level since November 14th 2014. World-Signals.com expects mostly that this resistance will keep the price above $73.24 untill the OPEC meeting on November 27th in Wien. If the price break below happens today the movement down will be not so deep by the key level of $73.24. Venezuela and Russia may cut the oil production as also the biggest exporter Saudi Arabia may also support the oil prices with cut of production. World-Signals.com strategy is that the cut of oil production will be not significant and after the OPEC meeting the oil prices may continue down with prices below $70. It is possible prices above $76.00 / $77.00 for a short time.
The heavy winter in United States especially in North-East is one of the major reason for the rising oil prices. While the heavy snow continue the oil prices will stabilized at prices between $76-$79. World-Signals.com forecasts for the next months remain with a target below $70 as the current record is at $73.24 on November 14th 2014 that is a record since August 2010. World-Signals.com forecasts is to trade the Crude Oil prices at the range $75 up to $80 then new short positions with target below $70.
The Oil prices continue downward. The first target that World-Signals.com set was $65-$70 as that our target will happen faster than our first expectations. World-Signals.com see the test below $70 this month as is possible prices in the winter at $55 for a barrel. OPEC will not cut the production as the major exporter Saudi Arabia will continue the pressure against the oil prices. World-Signals.com forecasts is to continue hold short positions or entry again in short positions with first target prices below $70. The current price in New York for Crude Oil is $ 74.00.
Crude Oil price in New York break a new record today. The trading in the European session hit the price of $75.89. The Crude Oil price are as low as the price since October 2011. World-Signals.com predicted that scenario in a publication since October 6th 2014 when we told for prices of $65-$70 next year. World-Signals.com expects new sanctions against Russia shortly that will be supported by low Crude Oil prices. The Oil prices may faster reach $65 that is our target and may continue at these low levels for a period of 1-year. Also we at World-Signals.com make our plans for average Crude Oil price in 2015 at $55-$60.
The Gold successfully test the key support level of $1183 today. We predicted these tests since September 22nd 2014 and yesterday when World-Signals.com make the forecasts for falling Gold price with target first at $1156 and second at the levels below or around $1100 per ounce that is a record low level since the beginning of 2010. The weakness may continue till the end of 2014 as the long-term forecasts of World-Signals.com is for very strong Gold with target above $2000. So in a short term keep short position and continue sell Gold while the trend remains bearish.
After a long-term period of relative firm Gold prices at levels between $1200 and $1350 is expecting period with changes. World-Signals.com expect the Gold prices at a record low level below $1100 this year. First the Gold will test the key support level of $1183 after that is expecting break down to $1156 and then new turn down to levels about and below $1100. This may happens this year as the tendency is already started. In 2015 and 2016 World-Signals.com expecting rising Gold prices as the end target is $2300.
World-Signals.com expects to see test of the key support EURUSD level at 1.2500 this or next week. The levels above 1.2690 are good for new short positions. The trading strategy by World-Signals.com is the follow: Entry into short EURUSD positions if you can at levels above 1.2690 up to 1.2740 and wait for new test below 1.2500.
World-Signals.com forecasts for Crude Oil continue to execute. The Crude Oil prices in New York break below $80 for first time since June 2012. Our major target for the barrel price is between $65 and $70. The factors that support the low oil prices are the rising production and low consumation. World-Signals.com trading strategy is to sell and hold your short positions. A new break below $80 is expecting shortly as the current price in New York rise to $83.
World-Signals.com forecasts for the Gold price is to stabilize at the levels above $1210. The key support level is at $1183.00. This is the second bottom the first one happens on 31st of December 2013 and second hit of the support on 5th of October 2014. The Gold bottom is at the day when EURUSD exchange cross was at 1.2500. The dollar gains are temporary stopped but in a short term is expecting new gains for the dollar that will follow with new third attempt of the Gold to break below $1183.00 but the first we can see support at $1203 and $1211 is the forecasts of World-Signals.com.
Crude Oil prices may continue down to a 4-years record. World-Signals.com analytic center make forecasts for Crude Oil in the next half a year. The oil prices may down to $65-$70 for barrel in a period till April-May 2015. The average Crude Oil prices for 2010 was $71 and is possible such levels again. World-Signals.com see the factors that moves the Crude Oil prices are the sanctions politic, illegal oil supplies by Iraq and Syria, opening of new oil wells. Also is key for the crude oil prices the temperatures during the winter in Europe and North America.
The Gold price against the dollar will continue into down direction. World-Signals.com see a good moment to sell at the current levels between $1214.00 and $1219.00. The rising dollar will keep the downtrend with a new test of the psychological level of $1200. World-Signals.com recommend to sell with a target $1204.00 next week or to keep for levels of $1183 in a few weeks time.
World-Signals.com expects to see consolidation of the Gold price against the Euro. The current Gold spot price is EUR 960.04. This week World-Signals.com recommend to trade within the levels of EUR 948 and EUR 975. Use these levels like key support/resistance levels. The rising dollar may push the Gold price against the US Dollar down below 1210 again to test the psychological level of $1200.
The Gold is on the way to test the level of $1182.38 a record since the last day for 2013. If the Gold price break below we can see levels since July 2010. First of all World-Signals.com predict that the Gold will test the psychological level of $1200 per ounce. If the test is successfull we can see the next test at key resistance at $1182. World-Signals.com trading strategy is to sell Gold at current levels or up to $1230 with target below $1200.
A lot of mix fundamental data is expecting next week from United States. World-Signals.com recommend to the traders to use mainly fundamental analysis instead the technical trading. After the Scotland referendum pressure is over the markets will focus to the fundamentals and continue pressure about Ukraine and sanctions politics. World-Signals.com sees EURUSD in a tiny consolidation at the current levels between 1.2830 - 1.2930. Use the top at about 1.2930 to sell for new low levels below 1.2800.
GBPUSD trading is in consolidation waiting for the Scotland referendum results. The consolidation will continue till the vote predict World-Signals.com. After the highest level of 1.7179 on 4th of July 2014 that is the record level since October 2008 the Pound loss over 1000 pips in the last two months ahead the key referendum for independence of Scotland. World-Signals.com expects flat trading till the time of the referendum. If Scotland vote for independence World-Signals.com recommend to sell Pound otherwise we recommend to open long at the current levels of 1.62-1.63 with target at 1.68 within two weeks.
Referendum in Scotland, sanctions against Russia. Which will gain EUR, USD or GBP? A lot of key factors reflect over the trading these days says by World-Signals.com. The sanctions against Russia and the Russian sanctions against E.U. also the key referendum in Scotland. World-Signals.com sees first of all the sanctions between Russia and E.U. helps to the dollar to make significant gains against the countries currency affected by the sanctions. But the referendum in Scotland may also push the dollar into new gains. First of all is very difficult to predict the referendum vote. Second the effect by the referendum may push Catalonia, Corsica, Belgium and others to vote for independence. In spite of the results the pressure against the Euro probably will rise. World-Signals.com recommend to the traders to monitor the referendum process and sell Euro close to 1.2970 - 1.3000 with a new target below 1.2600.
Almost $20 lost the Gold price last week. The major reason for Gold losses are the expensive dollar see World-Signals.com. Last week the price of Gold down from $1286 to $1268 and continue this week to a fresh new bottom at $1248. If you see the Gold price in Euro you can see minimal changes. The Gold price in Euro changes with almost EUR 20 last week but the open and the close of the week was at price of EUR 980 - EUR 978. In spite the dollar rises last week more than 170 pips against the euro the Gold will remain weak against the dollar and euro. World-Signals.com strategy is continue of the bearish trend during the week. In a very short-term World-Signals.com recommend to buy Gold this afternoon in U.S. trading session and sell in late Asian session or latest in European morning session. If you hold short positions we recommend to keep it with higher profit.
Last week World-Signals.com made the forecasts for change of the trend from bearish into neutral and bullish. The trend this week will remain neutral with slightly uptrend movements. The Gold open the new week at levels of $1287.00. World-Signals.com expects to see levels during the week between $1284.00 up to $1299.00. World-Signals.com trading strategy this week is to buy at levels close to current level of $1287 or lower with target at $1299 on Thursday and Friday.
The strong dollar is about to the end says World-Signals.com. The global situation that help the dollar rises in the last 3-4 months is changing now. The dollar is not a strong but the rest major currencies are weak due too the sanctions against Russia that affect is major over the Euro Zone and Euro, together with the British Pound, Japanese Yen and others. The civil war in South-East Ukraine may end shortly that will stop the investors looking for security in dollar investments. Euro-Dollar hit a 1-year bottom at 1.3152 yesterday (August 27th). In the next 3-4 business days is expecting a key moment for turning the bearish into neutral or bullish. World-Signals.com trading strategy is to buy EURUSD at the current levels. If EURUSD trading breaks below 1.3152 the downtrend may continue otherwise we epxect temporary recovery of the Euro. For exact trading strategy in daily and long-term basis follow us at World-Signals.com.
In the week of 25-29 August 2014 World-Signals.com make the following forecasts for the Gold spot. The Gold finished the week (18-22 August) at the price of USD 1280.71 per ounce. On Monday is expecting the gold price to rise up to $1283.50 and then turn back at $1278 - $1282. In the mid of the week is expecting to turn into upward direction with expecting levels at the end of the week of $1292-$1295. World-Signals.com trading strategy in the week 25-29 August is to buy at $1278-1280 with expecting exit at $1292 or above. For exact time and levels go to world-signals.com.
The markets will remain flat and consolidation till 8:30 AM Eastern Time today when is expecting the key U.S. data. At 8:30 AM today is schedule US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Unemployment rate is expecting at 7.3% the same as a month before. The key Nonfarm Payrolls may rise to 183K by 169K and to 183K by 152K in the private sector. World-Signals.com is in trading process in tiny positions with a target 15-20 pips using a technical analysis. At 8:30 AM ET World-Signals.com expects jumps in the markets.
After couple of days uptrend for EURUSD it is time to change the trend into neutral or even to turn down. World-Signals.com recommended to close the long positions and start with short positions.
USDJPY may breaks 103.30 that is 4.5 years high. USDJPY may reverse in the next few hours into upward trend. The highest level of USDJPY from Friday afternoon in New York is at 103.30. www.world-signals.com expects to see break above the highest level of 103.30 since October 2008. The trading strategy is to buy USDJPY in the next few hours.
ECB may cut the interest rates again to stimulate the economy. EURUSD is in a process of consolidation due too absent of key news from United States. The major news in these hours is the commentary of ECB president Mario Draghi, who said that the slow down of EU economy may push the bank to cut the interest rates again. In Germany is expecting data for Factory orders that may give a signal for interest rates cut. www.World-Signals.com expects slow movements into both directions today as is better to trade within the current support/resistance levels.
After the Euro recovery against the dollar in the last 4-5 days the process goes into consolidation. The key resistance is at 1.3121 as the break above is a signal for continues up trend. The most expecting scenario by www.world-signals.com is to see continue of the consolidation at the levels below 1.31. There are important data from Germany today: Consumer Price Index and Harmonised Index of Consumer Price. The U.S. data today is expecting at 8:30 AM Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Export Prices ex-ag. and Import Prices ex-oil.
The pressure over the Euro rises. The majors reasons are the continue politic crisis in Italy and the fears by the investors for the bank conditions in EuroZone. The fears that Cyprus bank effect may spread in Europe rises. Many investors plan to change the Euro with U.S. Dollar and other currencies. For today is expecting the data for U.S. ADP Employment Change and ISM Services. www.world-signals.com trading strategy for today is to hold short EURUSD positions.
GBPUSD is into uptrend as break key resistance at 1.5152. GBPUSD is ready to break above the resistance level at 1.5180. The uptrend is started. www.world-signals.com recommend to open long GBPUSD position. It is possible some turns down for a short time that is a good moment to open long if you are still not open.
Fears in Europe for bank savings rise. EURUSD may reach 1.20 in a few months. The release of bad data for the EU economy and the bank crisis is Cyprus is the major factors pushing euro down. The investor’s fears for the situation in EU bank sector rises. Many investors and bank deposit holders are not sure for their bank savings. The fears rising even in Germany. The EU economy may fall into new crisis just recovering by the last crisis. The attacks against the Euro will continue as in the next few months EURUSD may trading at levels below 1.20 is our forecasts by www.world-signals.com.
The safe plan for Cyprus in size of $10 billion is ready. This night the both side reach to agreement that will safe the banks and Cyprus by bankruptcy. The deposit with sizes less than EUR 100 000 are safe but for the rest will be cut depends in which banks are deposit. The news pushes the Euro to gain with the start of Asian session. www.world-signals.com expects slow correction down of EURUSD before new move upward. The trading idea for today is to open long positions as buy when there is a correction down with 25/30 pips.
EURUSD forms the first support level at 1.2880. The support is strong, as the break below will open the way for at least 40 pips move down. The next support level is at 1.2843. At the moment EURUSD trading slowly consolidates at the current levels in expectation for decision of Cyprus bank crisis. There are important Germany data today for IFO indexes at 9:00 AM GMT. The first trading strategy of www.world-signals.com today is to trade within the trading range 1.2880 and 1.2955.
EURUSD trading today is expecting to turn down below the levels of 1.2900. The trading may pick with 25/30 pips up from the current level when will turn into downtrend. The Cyprus bank crisis end is not see as the banks in the island country may remain closed many days or weeks. The situation there hurt the trust in the Euro and Euro Zone situation with the rising debt problem. www.world-signals.com recommends today to open short positions.
Cyprus refuses the EU help but the exit by the crisis is still unknown. The effect of the expecting deposit tax is too negative for the Euro in short and long-term. The trust in the bank system is at very low level. The banks in countries like Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland and others are not attractive for investments. That means that the economy in these countries may slow down. The Euro tendency started immediately after the weekend decision. In spite that the taxes over the deposit may be avoided the Euro started downtrend that probably would not stop easy. www.world-signals.com expects EURUSD to down at 1.2620 in a period of couple of days.
The new taxes over the deposits in Cyprus is totally negative for the Euro. The Euro downtrend continue. World-Signals.com recommend to sell EURUSD or hold short positions. The target is few hundred pips down from the current level.
The traders prefer to bet safety after the bank crisis in Cyprys. The new tax in Cyprys for the deposits may hurt the island country but may hurt the Euro as well. Many investors will prefer the dollar instead the euro in such situation. After the opening of the markets EURUSD jump with more than 170 pips. The day when the banks will open in Cyprys is Tuesday. The starting trend downward may continue at least till Tuesday morning in Europe forecast by www.world-signals.com.
EURUSD will continue into uptrend today. World-Signals.com recommend opening long positions or hold long positions. The target may reach the levels above 1.3100.
The break above 1.4960 for GBPUSD change the trend from downward to upward. In the next couple of days is expecting upward trend or at least neutral for GBPUSD. For details forecasts and analyses visit www.world-signals.com
The GBPUSD trend continue into downward direction. The resistance level for GBPUSD is at 1.4960. The break above means uptrend with target 1.5050. The trading idea today is open short position or keep short position. The target for GBPUSD today is 1.4870. It is possible to hit levels close to 1.4820 too.
Spot Gold trading is going slowly into downward direction. Keep short positions or open short to expect profit of 450/550 pips. Spot Gold may down even more than the first idea to take 450/550 pips profit. World-Signals.com is into short positions since the end of U.S. session.
World-Signals.com says: Spot Gold may continue rise up to $1587.00. In the next few days the Gold may continue rise. World-Signals expects levels close to $1600. It is recommend to buy or hold long positions.
In the next few hours EURUSD trading expectations are slowly move upward to 1.3035/40. After that is expecting correction downward with target 1.2975/80. The current trading level is 1.3002. EURUSD strong support level is formed at 1.2955. Forecast by: World-Signals.com
Crude Oil Futures New York may down in European session while new trend change push up at the levels of $92.00. The current level is $91.66 with first target down at $91.30. Fore more visit: www.World-Signals.com
The Japan Yen in the next hours will take advantage against the dollar based on the technical analysis. But the tendency for the last two days of the business week is for weak yen against the dollar. Currently at the close of U.S. session the yen/dollar is trading at 84.02 while is possible correction to levels below 83.60. A world-Signals.com forecast is that the levels below 83.60 are best for opening of long positions. If the yen gain below 83.25/30 reverse the forecast.
The new portion of news by wikileaks may push the bank in chaos. The web site Wikileaks may send information for the United States banks that will cause damages around the world. The news may collapse and push to bankruptcy some of the major banks in United States by the way of Merrill Lynch. If the rumors are confirmed by Wikileaks is expecting new serial of bankruptcy said by World-Signals.com in United States bank sector.
Bank of Japan is close to the time to make new intervention. Bank of Japan is close to the time to make second intervention on the markets. The bank will continue to support the currency. Bank of Japan made the first intervention since several months on September 15th 2010. The yen lose almost 300 pips against the dollar during the intervention. World-Signals.com predict that the Bank of Japan intervention will happen when the trading of dollar/yen fall below 83 or even to levels of 82.40. Bank of Japan probably will action alone but is not exception cooperation with other banks.
Breaking News: The Yen, Dollar and Gold are the biggest winners from the Greece crisis. Black Thursday for the bourses is today. The market reacts to the escalating Greece crisis. The strike in Greece with the demonstrations in Athens pushes the investors to safe investments. The big winners from the escalating crisis in Europe are the Japanese Yen following by the dollar and Gold. The cable loses over 450 pips for the last 24-hours following by the euro losses of over 300 pips. The yen gains against the dollar over 600 pips for less than 7-hours. The Dow Jones down below 10 000 as was trading far below 9900 but fast recovery again. The speculations that the Greece crisis may set the euro in very difficult period that will be followed by the nations like Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Italy and other countries.
The strike in Greece may escalate, as the rescue government plan will fail. The government takes decision to raise the taxes in Greece that may cause wave of strikes in the southeast European country. The fuels, tobaccos, alcohol, VAT taxes, cutting salaries and so on could help to the country to take control over the rising national debt but the population may not allow to do it easy. The crisis from Greece may spread in other countries close to Greece like Bulgaria, Romania, and Italy also to countries close to Greece debt like Spain, Portugal, Ireland and others. The euro probably will became weaker in the coming weeks as the mid-term forecast made by World-Signals.com is for levels Euro-Dollar of 1.28.
Serial of events pushes the Crude Oil to set record high level for this winter season. The Crude Oil rises with about $2 for the last few hours in rising fears for the cold winter in the north part of the world. The extreme cold weather in Europe and United States will cause rises in oil demand. The rising problems in Indian Ocean especially close to the Somalia cost is also reason for the rising Crude Oil. The Crude Oil price rises in the last 10 days. The weather forecasts remain mixed with continue cold temperatures that will keep the oil prices above $80. The New York Light Sweet Crude Oil is trading at $83.02 at 15:25 Eastern Time. The World-Signals.com forecast for the coming couple of days is mix trading with little correction downward and continue the upward trend to $85.
The Crude Oil may reach $88 till the end of 2009 predict by World-Signals.com. The Crude Oil is on the way to make significant gain while the dollar slowly recovery against the euro the Crude oil rises with more than $3 closes $80 per barrel (New York) during the European session on Wednesday. The positive news from United States push the traders to predict rising in oil demand. The better expectations for U.S. reports may push the investors to buy Crude again these days. Scott Brown energy expert in World-Signals.com predict that the Crude Oil may rises to $88 during 2009. It means by the winter if the winter is cold the demand will rise, as OPEC will leave the supplies at the same production levels that will push the prices above $85 with target $88 or even $90.
This week is important for the further euro/dollar trend. The economic events are too much that will affect over the trading. The Fed will leave the key interest rates at the lowest level but the signals when will start rising is the most important. The investors expect some key time frame when the Fed and economy will be ready for higher interest rates. If the signal is clear the investors may back the interest of the dollar currency. The other key news this week is the Friday jobs report that is expecting from better reports for U.S. non-farm payrolls to worse than prior month. The forecasts predict new rising of Unemployment Rate to the psychological level of 10%.
The world financial system seems that is full of dollars. The dollar is sold everywhere for much more attractive euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars, Yen and other currencies and the risky assets. The Federal Reserve probably will leave the key interest rates at the record low level of 0.00% and 0.25%. This level probably will keep in whole 2009 and the first months of 2010 predict Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. The dollar may continue fall against the euro as may break above 1.50 and reach 1.5160 or even 1.5200. The optimism for the world economy comes back too fast that is also reason for the weak dollar this month.
The recovery of the world largest economy is on the way. The bottom of the recession is over. The investors back to the shares market. The Dow Jones tendency show stability rise in the coming months. There are a many indicators showing positive news for recovery said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. Dow Jones may breaks the psychological level of 10 000 in October or even this month said Scott Brown stock analyzer in World-Signals.com. The news is really optimistic, as the capitals will back in the economy very fast. The Dow Jones Industrial Average currently is at 9500 with chances for recovery to 10 000 in the coming weeks.
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The Crude Oil may reach $100 for barrel at the end of 2009. After short time break the Crude Oil turn up again. The Crude Oil was traded close to $74 for barrel a week ago. The slowly recovery of the Crude Oil price to levels of $70 push most of the investors to fast with the bought. The world economy recovery signals rises that push the interest and appetite with oil long positions. The Crude Oil may rise with 4-5 dollars in the coming couple of days predict Scott Brown energy expert in World-Signals.com. The oil may continue rises as at the end of 2009 may reach $100 for barrel. The investment in oil is profitable as is expecting serious oil price rise as the world economy recovery.
The Gold prices will continue rising above the last record. The Gold remain very stable during the crisis period. The U.S. Dollar losses by the last couple of days allow to the Gold to take ahead to the record levels above $1000. The forecast for the Gold prices show that in June we can see new record. The last record is since February 20th 2009 and seems will be successfully attack said Peter Mill by World-Signals.com. In June 2009 the Gold probably will be trading at the levels between $1025 and $1045. The investors who bet to sure investments turn to the Gold. The Gold prices show stability and sure income in the period of recession. The Gold price rises with about $30 for the last week after 4-consequence weeks with upward movement. The tendency will continue said Peter Mill by World-Signals.com with test of new record prices.
Economy optimism may set oil prices at $75 during the summer. The optimism for fast end of the world recession pushes the oil prices. The Crude Oil price rises as the chances for fast recovery of U.S. economy dominates among the news. The Crude Oil prices rises day after day since the end of April when was trading at the levels below $50. The Crude Oil in New York was trading above $65 on Thursday. If the economy starts with the expecting recovery the oil prices will reach $100 for barrel very fast predict Scott Brown energy expert in World-Signals.com. OPEC may raise few times the production quotes but that will not stop the oil prices rise. The oil may continue rises with target of $75 during the summer. If the optimism for the end of the recession raise the oil prices raise will continue.
The dollar finished a full week with every day losses against the euro. The Euro Zone positive news allow to the euro to gain about 600 pips against the dollar in the last week. The risk appetite also pushes the traders to sell dollars during the week. The huge gain of the Euro with 600 pips may allow to most of the traders to start profit taken in the coming week. The pressure against the dollar is mainly psychological. The main news by the last few weeks show that the bottom of U.S. recession is not reached as the global recession continues. The trend to sell dollars may end in a short time according to Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. If we do not see the end of the dollar losses on Monday the trading may continue at the levels of 1.4250 where the profit taken will start with dollar recovery to level of 1.3650/3700 is the forecast by World-Signals.com.
The dollar is widely sold as the bottom of recession come. The dollar was widely sold on Friday after the first signs of stabilization of the world economy number one. The key non-farm payrolls report send positive signal that the bottom is reached. The new jobs losses forecasts predicted above 600K while the report show 539K losses jobs. This is better than the worst March month of 699K loss jobs. The non-farm payroll report remains in negative trend that send the Unemployment Rate at the expecting level of 8.9%. World-Signals.com forecast by the prior year predict levels above 9% in 2009 with chances for levels above 10% and up to 12% if the bottom space is too long. These signals push the investors to turn to risky assets in bought of euros. If the Euro/dollar breaks above 1.3740 the trading in the coming week may stop at the levels of 1.3920/45 and turn back to recovery of the dollar. The chances for dollar recovery are set to high at the end of the coming week.
The U.S. GDP-Adv fell to -6.1% much more than the forecast of -4.7%. The last report was at -6.3%. The key report today is the worst for the last 50 years. The last six months were the worst since the period of 1957-1958. The worst report for the last 50 years send new signal that the bottom is still not reached. The world biggest economy may not start recovery this year is the statement of Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. The other key news today is the widely expecting decision the Fed to leave the key benchmark at 0.00-0.25%. The key words by the two days Fed meeting is the fact that the economy continue moving down as the process speed is less than the prior periods. This is not a optimism because the process is still downward said Peter Mill. The dollar was sold after the news against the euro, pound and Swiss franc and bough against the yen.
It is not expecting good signals for the world largest economy this week. The temporary positive signals by the last few weeks will end. It is expecting bad signals for the key U.S. Durable Orders and Home Sales reports said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. The companies are not ready to invest when the economy still go down. The unemployment rate continues rise the spending down no one is willing to invest in these conditions. We do not see optimism as the bottom is probably far away. The only one fast chance to stimulate the economy is to cause inflation to push the people to spend as invest to save their savings by the inflation said Peter Mill by World-Signals.com. But this is not a good idea add Mr. Mill. The dollar may continue rise this week if the expecting U.S. reports send negative signals for the economy.
Australia’s Central Bank interest rates follow the other major banks. Australia’s Central Bank cut it’s benchmark interest rates with quarter percent to 3.00%. This is a 49-years low interest rates level. The reason for the change in the interest rates politic is the recession in Australia as the last problems was in 1991. The Australia Central Bank follows the other major banks worldwide and cut the interest rates cause by the global recession. The unemployment rate in Australia rises as the investors predict new interest rates cut during this year. May be the Australia Central Bank will cut the interest rates to level of 2.25% this year said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. In September 2008 the Australia key interest rates was at 7.25% as the bank five consecutive times cut the interest rates till today ay 3.00%.
The most important event today is the decision about the interest rates level in the Euro Zone. The European Central Bank is expecting to cut the interest rates to 1.00% with half percent by the current level of 1.50%. The fears for deeper of recession is the main reason for the ECB expectations said Peter Mill forex expert in Word-Signals.com. ECB may signal that this will be not the bottom on the press conference at 8:30 AM today. Mr. Mill said that is expecting in the next few months ECB to cut interest rates to 0.50% - 0.75%. The interest rates politic will not work further. These low levels may cause panic in the population by the closing recession. Today the euro-dollar trading is in the levels of 1.3250-1.3310. The key moment with high volumes is expecting during the press conference today.
Finally Obama amid that the financial plans for the U.S. carmaker General Motors will fail. Obama administration official said bankruptcy may be the best option for GM and Chrysler. After the spending of billions of dollars to save the symbol of U.S. car industry Obama will throw these billions. The effect by couple of months support for the U.S. carmakers is nothing. We have spent billions of dollars that do not help said Scott Brown stock analyser in World-Signals.com. Where is Obama optimism now adding Mr. Brown? May be the plans of Obama will fail one after one as the first plan is on the way to totally fail. What will happen with the world largest economy if Obama fail with the other plans to stimuli and save the economy ask Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com.
The Fed will fight the recession as cause inflation. The Fed chooses the fight with the recession is bet on inflation. The Fed will start print money to fight the recession, banks and companies bankruptcy. It is expecting strong rise of the inflation at the second half of 2009 said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. In 2010 the inflation in United States may rise to levels above 5% predict Mr. Mill. The people these one who still keep their jobs save money, not spending following the speculations about the recession deeper. In a moment when the recession talks stopped the people will out their funds. The inflation is the most expecting scenario to cause all these funds to turn in the economy again. Peter Mill said that the last news by the Federal Reserve is accepted as positive by the investors but the effect will be temporary. May be Bernanke make the second biggest mistake that will keep United States in crisis for longer time?
The U.S. economy is in worse situation that Obama’s view. The latest news for U.S. jobs sector showed that Obama optimism is not at the right place. The Unemployment rate continue rise and set a quarter a century record. The recession is deeper and deep fast than the forecasts. The bottom is far away said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. The unemployment rate will continue rising as Peter Mill confirms his forecast for unemployment rate above 10% this year. The U.S. non-farm payrolls set new record three consequence months with levels of –600K that’s happened for first time since the data began in 1939. The United States forecasts show that the recession in the world biggest economy will continue in whole 2009 and 2010. There is not signs for optimism in a near two years said Peter Mill.
Three major banks cut the interest rates to lowest levels. The day of interest rates cut. The two leading European banks and Canada cut the interest rates with half percent. First Bank of Canada cut the interest rates with 0.5% to 0.50%. European Central Bank followed bank of Canada with 0.5% cut to 1.50% and Bank of England with 0.5% to 0.50%. The levels are at record low for the banks. The decision was forecasting by the market experts. ECB cut the interest rates after the new forecast for expecting inflation in the Euro Zone for 2010 at 1.00% from the current 1.8%. Bank of England also decide to print money to buy assets. Bank of England will pump money into the economy by purchasing as much as 150 billion pounds, in government and corporate bonds.
Forget about the European Union help said the West to the East. European Union is set to very serious test. The Eastern European countries ask for a financial help in a size of up to 180 billions euros. The Hungary prime minister made the request for the financial injection in Eastern Europe. The European Union is not a union because leave all countries especially countries with weak economy to fight the world financial crisis alone. At the same time “Old Europe” blame the “New Europe” that can deep the recession in the European Union. It is not the true said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Ssignals.com. The Eastern European banks have higher profits in the last few years than the Western Europe. The banks that invest in Eastern Europe take back the profit in a size of billions of Euro. As the most of the banks in Eastern Europe are part of Western corporations they see problems in financing after money back to the centrals. The rest banks with local capitals continue to public profits for the first month of 2009 when all Western banks send negative reports. If Western Europe not helps to the East we can say that the European Union is fabrication that do not work.
World-Signals.com forecasts for the next companies needed by billions to be save. World-Signals.com predicts the new companies that will needed by Obama billions. They are needed by billions to avoid bankruptcy said Scott Brown stock expert by World-Signals.com. The forecast is for the following companies in two groups. In the “Group A” we listed the companies that chances for new financial help is almost needed immediately or already receive financial help: American International Group (AIG) Citigroup (C) Eastman Kodak (EK) General Motors (GM) In the “Group B” are companies that will needed by financial help in the coming 2-6 months time: Alcoa (AA) Altria (MO) American Express Company (AXP) Boeing (BA) General Electric (GE) International Paper Company (IP) World-Signals.com makes this forecast based on information for the tendency in the financial situation of the companies and the expecting expenses that will cause difficulties in the fresh resources.
USA and Europe follow the way of socialism and Chavez politic. The most using new and forget word in the new millennium is nationalization. The word popular in 1950’s became very popular in the world in 2008 especially 2009 and attracts much more governments around the world to use the word nationalization not as word, but as action. The banks in United States and Europe are nationalizing. The next step is the companies. The companies that are almost bankruptcy like the carmakers will become nationalizing. There are two other alternatives: to leave their bankruptcy or to be sold to new owner probably investors from China or India. The forecasts show that the global recession will continue at least till the end of 2010. For so much time the Obama spending of over $800 billion will be not enough. May be will be necessary at least triple by $800 billion for this period predict by World-Signals.com. The nationalization will continue as the part of the private sector may down below 50%. Some analyzers ask whether is it became of socialism or following the politic of Chavez?
Western European banks can sacrifice the Eastern brunches. The European Banks slowly but sure going to bankruptcy. The last few days the news for the fail of the European Banking system pushes the traders to sell euro. The commentaries blame the bank brunches in Eastern and Central Europe. The banks in Eastern Europe are in more than 80% owner of Western European Banks. The credit balloon and the housing sector crisis is the main factor for the worse results for the banks in Eastern and Central Europe. But can you answer to the question: Can a bank brunches collapse giant like Raiffaisen Bank and UniCredit Bank? The question is very simple: of course NO said Peter Mill by World-Signals.com. The bank problems are in United States and the covetous of the Western banks. They push all brunches to give credits as the money landing rising too much. But the credits in Eastern and Central Europe are liquidated and the bad credits are in normal levels. Why then the Western banks talk about a problem in Eastern and Central Europe? There is not a problem in most of the Eastern European countries there is a problem in Western Europe and the Western banks. The Eastern European banks in the last couple of years calculate enormous gains. If the banks in Eastern Europe bankruptcy these fresh capitals will come back in Western European banks in few hundred percent profits said Peter Mill by World-Signals.com. The banks speculate with the gains as encourage the Eastern European countries to take new loans that really is not needed. The real facts show that the banks in Eastern and Central Europe that are not associated with Western banks end the 2008 with profit although the world recession.
The Crude Oil prices in New York fall below $34 for a barrel. The falling oil prices are caused by the world financial and economic crisis. The world biggest oil consumer United States continue to store oil at low prices. With the rises of reserves the price of the oil continue to fall. OPEC announced that the prices would be necessary to raise and signal that is ready to cut the oil supplies in March. After the OPEC news the oil prices jumped with more than $4 to $38.02. The oil prices may continue rise because OPEC may cut the oil production earlier than March if the prices fall as low as $35. OPEC will target prices in the range of $42-$50 said Scott Brown by World-Signals.com. But the prices may continue down to $34 again this week as the OPEC meeting in March is far away.
Positive news for the world biggest economy comes today with the release of Initial Claims and Retail Sales. The Initial Claims for the prior week are 623K almost like the expectations while the Retail Sales rises to 1.0% with a forecast of -0.8%. The better than expected Retail Sales will encourage the investors to buy risky assets predict George Marshal by World-Signals.com. In this situation the chances for euro-dollar to fall below 1.27 are minimal. The dollar may trade at the levels up to 1.30 and above till the end of this business week. Currently euro-dollar was support at the level of 1.2796, as the break below this level will turn the tendency for weak dollar today. During the first minutes after the key Retail Sales and Initial Claims reports the dollar was selling but still there is not clear trend.
With the fell of oil prices the U.S Trade Deficit come down to a normal levels. The latest report for U.S. Trade Balance for November 2008 shows level of -$40.4B. It is expecting new recovery of the U.S. Trade Balance for December 2008. The forecast show levels of -$37.0B. The record high levels since the first half of 2008 when the U.S. Trade Deficit was close to -$70B is far away. The starting recession and low oil prices are the main factors pushing the trade deficit at better levels. The recovery of the U.S. Trade Balance is in a period when United States continues to buy oil in large volumes to add the stores when the prices are low. In the coming few months the Trade Deficit may recovery to a level of -$27/29B is the forecast of World-Signals.com.
The jobs market in the world biggest economy suffers. The forecast for Friday report show that is expecting jump of U.S. unemployment rate to levels of 7.5%. The biggest jobs rise is expecting for February-April said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. The unemployment rate may rise to 9.0% at the end of first quarter for 2009. Many new companies announce news for new jobs cut as the spending cuts. The fresh money for investments not come and new restrictions will be needed this year. Some experts expect at the end of 2009 the unemployment rate to break the psychological level of 10% and jump even to 12.5%. Peter Mill by World-Signals.com confirm such forecast for levels of unemployment rate above 10% in 2009 and non-farm payrolls monthly report of 800-900K. At the end of 2009 the Obama plan may stop the jobs cut but the effect will feel earlier in the second half of 2009.
Boeing company may needed by financial support in the coming weeks is the forecast of World-Signals.com experts. The company may suffer with the world recession that will need to cut the airplane production and continue with jobs cut. The company shares bottom was set on November 21st 2008 at 36.15 dollars per share temporary recovery to the levels of $ 39/46. The cut of jobs may not enough as Boeing will necessary to cut new jobs or cut of working hours. The recession stops the plans of air transport companies to invest in new aircrafts. The shares of Boeing may fall to the levels of $27/28 in February-March, as the recession is still not reached the bottom in the air industry.
Eastman Kodak shares dramatic decline for the last two days. Eastman Kodak is the next company that wills bankruptcy or the Fed will nationalize. The company suffers since March 2008, as the investors are not willing to buy shares of the company. On Thursday and Friday the shares of Eastman Kodak crash with about 61%. The lowest trading level was set on Friday at $4.30 per share as recovery to $4.50 at the end of the session. Many experts include by World-Signals.com predict such scenario for Eastman Kodak. The company will cut 4500 jobs due too the recession but it may is not enough to stop the losses of U.S. photography pioneer. Eastman Kodak amid for losses of $133 millions for the last quarter of 2008. The cut of 4500 jobs in Eastman Kodak is 18% of the total employees in the company. The shares of Eastman Kodak may fall to $2 per share in February 2009.
The United States Gross Domestic Product for fourth quarter for 2008 fell with 3.8% for annual pace. This is less than the forecast of levels of -5.2%/-5.6%. But the fell with 3.8 percent is the lowest since 1982. The recession started at the end of 2008 will show new bottoms of GDP in 2009. The investors turn to security currencies like the dollar and yen also gold. The Euro-Dollar fall to level closes to 1.28 the report before. In the first minutes of the GDP release the trading is mix with high volumes. The expecting continues recovery of the dollar stopped due too not so bad expectations of GDP. The trading 10 minutes after the report is at EURUSD at 1.2840 and USDJPY at 89.60, as the bottom today was at 89.15 during the opening of European session. The gold remain the prefer investment and rise before and after GDP today as at the moment 13-minutes after the report is at $925 and may continue rise up top $940.
The investors looking for stability and sell high profit currencies like the euro. Few hours later is expecting the worse report for Gross Domestic Product in United States for the last 26-years. The GDP-Adv in United States for the last quarter for 2008 is expecting at the levels of -5.2% to -6.2% today. The dollar and the yen are the prefer currencies in a period of continue recession when the bottom is still not reached. The latest reports show that the recession will continue in the whole 2009. The forecasts few months ago showed that at the end of 2009 the economics would start with recovery. But the new forecast see these chances at least at the mid of 2010. If the report today show worse than the forecast the dollar may rise to levels of 1.27 against the euro today while the dollar/yen to fall to 87.80.
The U.S. economy will send new bad signals in the coming week. The most important Gross Domestic Product for the last quarter will show the biggest drop since 1982. The forecast is for a drop between 4.8% and 5.8%. The most expecting data is 5.5%. The report is schedule for January 30th. The rising unemployment sends serious signal to the consumers to stop buys like before. The first quarter of 2009 will be a big challenge for the whole economy as new drop in GDP may collapse the whole economy. We are not seeing such recession in the modern world. We are never met such difficulties, no one can know what will happen said George Marshal Forex analyzer in World-Signals.com.
The year 2009 will face the effect of the world financial and economic recession worldwide. It is expecting bad news for the year. World-Signals.com describes some forecasts for 2009. The recession will spread in more than 130 countries worldwide. The oil can down to $30 but will remain as overall stable with chances for rise to $55/60. The Gold will break in new records above $1000 in 2009. The unemployment rate in United States will ups to 9%. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone will rise to 15%. It is expecting merge of big world corporation like the carmakers. EURUSD will trade to level of 1.00 in 2009. USDJPY may fall to 76 if there is not reaction of Bank of Japan. The pound will suffer as in 2009 will be trading against the dollar for 1.25. The part of the private sector in Euro Zone and United States will cut significantly. The interest rates in United States will remain at the same levels for 2009. The European Central Bank will be necessary to cut the interest rates to 1.00%. These are forecasts by World-Signals.com. The using of these forecasts is at own risk.
Bank of America and Citigroup are needs by new financial help. The bank sector in United States comes in a new period of the recession. The latest plans to help the bank system fail, as will be necessary new injections for the biggest U.S. banks. If there is not government help Citigroup and Bank of America will be history said Scott Brown stock analyzer in World-Signals.com. The both banks will be necessary at least by another $450 billions to avoid bankruptcy this quarter of 2009. Bank of America is in unstable situation after the bought of Merrill Lynch. Merrill Lynch investments hurt the heart of the U.S. bank system. The bank managers are one of the main responsible for the world financial crisis said Scott Brown. The bad investments and management of Merrill Lynch probably are estimated at more than $1200 billions. The American taxpayer will pay all these bad investments, as the payments will continue couple of years after 2009.
U.S. housing sector will go down in whole 2009. The recession in United States is not reached the bottom. This week will show new signs for the deeper of the recession. The recession started with the housing slumps as the bottom is still far away. The new business week will show new downtrend of the United States Building Permits and Housing Starts for December 2008. The recession, the winter period and the holidays will cause serious drop of new housing starts said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. The balloon in the housing sector was too big and the process of recovery to normal levels will continue so far how was the balloon expanding. In World-Signals.com predict that the U.S. housing sector will go down in whole 2009 and is possible slightly recovery far at the end of 2009. The key reports for U.S. housing sector is schedule for Thursday January 22nd.
The gas crisis in Europe may control by United States. The gas crisis is deeper. Ukraine continues stop the gas from Russia to Western, Central and South-East Europe. The energy supplies to Europe was stopped in the first business week of 2009. After serials of negotiations the crisis is deeper. Some of the speculations for the absent of gas supplies show technical problems but the real face of the problems caused by the gas prices and transit gas prices through Ukraine pipelines system. The experts express doubts about the crisis origin. United States control Ukraine decisions and may give a pressure to stop the gas for Europe. Western Europe has not a reason to stop the gas but United States are willing to take advantage by the gas crisis. The crisis may remain indecisive in the coming couple of days predict the World-Signals.com energy experts.
Bank of England may cut the interest rates twice time again. The recession in the island is deeper and will be necessary new interest rates cut predicting Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. Bank of England cut the key interest rates with half percent to 1.50% yesterday. The inflation is low as the recession deeper. Bank of England for first time in his history set the interest rates so lower. But it is not enough comment Peter Mill. Till the period of April-May Bank of England will set the interest rates below 1.00% to fight with the global financial and economic crisis. The pound is stronger after the Bank of England decision but in a short time will turn down. In World-Signals.com predict that the pound will be trading below 1.38 for a dollars.
Crude Oil jumps as Ukraine gas transit problems deeper. For the last two business days the Crude Oil jump with more than $13 according to World-Signals.com. The main reason for the rise of the black gold is the crisis with the gas supplies for Europe through Ukraine. The gas crisis come at the time when in Europe the winter temperatures fall to –25 C. The Crude Oil in New York break above $50 today may continue to rise as the crisis deeper. The Crude Oil was trading at $35.52 on 26th of December 2008. The big jump came on 2nd of January 2009 and continues to rise for third day. The Crude Oil may fall when there is clear view for the decision of the gas transit through Ukraine as many European countries suffer in the cold winter.
Job losses probably are at record level since World War II. The United States jobs market reports at the end of first business week for 2009 is the key event for the forex traders. It is widely expecting new bad report. The jobs market in United States for December 2008 forecasts shows loses more than 450K jobs. In some forecasts the report reach to 550K. This will be the poorest year after the World War II for the U.S. jobs market. The Unemployment Rate will jump to 6.9% - 7.1%. The jobs market in United States suffers said George Marshal forex analyser in World-Signals.com. The recession deeper as in the beginning of 2009 the Unemployment Rates may rise to 7.8% predict by World-Signals.com. The big companies release almost everyday news for new plan of jobs cut. We are far of the bottom, as Obama plan will start working at least after 3-4 months predict by World-Signals.com.
The first business day for 2009 started with bad expectations for the Euro Zone. The traders predict that the problems in Europe will deeper in 2009. The speculations show that the European Central Bank will cut the key interest rates from the current level of 2.5%. The bank will cut the interest rates on the next ECB meeting as till April the key interest rates will lower to levels of 1.00% - 1.25% said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. "There's a lot more weakness in Europe ahead," said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. He predicts ECB to cut interest rates to 1.00% in March. The cut of ECB interest rates will cause weakness of the Euro. The forecasts show that the Euro will fall to levels below 1.20 in the first half of 2009. We can see levels of EURUSD down to 1.10 in the first half of 2009 said George Marshal. From 1st of January in the Euro Zone come in Slovakia. This is a better for Slovakia and for the Euro Zone said George Marshal in spite the difficulties of the Euro.
Peter Mill forecasts for 2009 in interview for LiveForexNews.com
Peter Mill is one of the top forex expert’s chief of World-Signals.com with more than 10-years experience in forex trading. He was invited by LiveForexNews.com to make his forecasts for 2009 and describe 2008. Monica O’Neil: Dear Peter how can you describe the passed 2008? Peter Mill: Well the year 2008 will be memory for all investors with the start of world economic recession. The key trading levels like the bottom of dollar against the euro above 1.60 and pound up to 2.12. At the same time the oil and gold prices jump to record levels. These extremely dangerous movements cause the recession because many investors prefer panic investments in real estates and commodities. The balloon was cause by Federal Reserve couple of years earlier when the interest rates was at 1.00% and follow fast jump of interest rates in 2005-2007. Then most of the people were difficult by the high interest rates that cause massive sales of real estates. Monica O’Neil: Who is responsible for the recession? Peter Mill: The recession came by the panic, as the panic was caused by United States, and in details the politic of United States starting by Alan Greenspan. But the main responsible for the world economic recession are George Bush and Ben Bernanke politics. The second level responsible for the world economic recession are the top managers of world financial institutions like the banks which most of them bankruptcy or were nationalize. Monica O’Neil: In a period of recession what do you advice the traders, investors and people to do? Peter Mill: After every recession come period of growth. After the end of recession we will see recovery of the traders interest and investments especially in the forex and commodity markets. The massive injections with fresh funds will end with inflation. I expect too much free money that will start investing again in goods, real estates and trading on the bourses. Monica O’Neil: What are your forecasts for 2009? Peter Mill: In 2009 we expect strong movements on the bourses. EURUSD probably will fall to levels of 0.98/1.02, as the Fed will raise the interest rates to the end of 2009 to 1.00%. The yen will continue to rise as is expecting Bank of Japan interventions. The pound will continue to lose to levels GBPUSD of 1.20. The recession comes in whole Europe. May be in 2009 will be dominant by recession and far at the end of 2009 even 2010 I expect the end of the recession. The oil may fall to $30 but at the end of 2009 will be trading at $80. The Gold will remain stable with prices of $650-$950. At the end of our interview I want to wish to all traders and investors in 2009 carefully trading and much more discipline. Carefully analyses and discipline are the key to the success. Monica O’Neil: Thank you very much Peter. Monica O’Neil phone interview with Peter Mill forex expert of World-Signals.com on 1st of January 2009.
The Christmas shopping is not the same as before. The ISM Index release at the end of the week will show new bottom. It is expecting slowly rise of U.S. Consumer Confidence. “Consumers are more cash-and credit-constrained than ever before. After a 25-year spending tsunami, they’ve shifted from spending to savings” Burt Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group said. The recession causes down of spending in all economic sectors. In spite the super discounts in the markets this holiday will be the worst in at least four decades. The biggest discounts like the Macy’s Inc., Circuit City Stores Inc. and others not raise the sales. “The people are not willing to invest in advertisements although the big discounts said Jonathan Donaldson” by StartFreeAds.com. The advertisement network StartFreeAds will offer to all new advertisers free ads for a week in their network to attract more advertisers. The investors cut most of the projects and investments in a period of recession. The Christmas shopping probably will be the lowest in the last few decades said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com.
GM shares to down below $2.00 in the first days of 2009. GM shares may drop again below $2.00 in the beginning of 2009. The Fed support for the biggest U.S. carmaker would not avoid bankruptcy is the opinion of many investors. The symbols of the U.S. power General Motors will be nationalize or have to sell to Chinese’s. The other two possible scenarios are merge of the main U.S. carmakers Chrysler and Ford with GM or the Fed to continue with the support for the U.S. carmaker. The national proud probably will cause the last scenario and the U.S. budget to fill new billions to support the carmakers. It is necessary at least $80 billions to save GM said Victor Maksoudov Stock Market analyzer in World-Signals.com. The three carmakers may require new financial help in the beginning of 2009 or to prepare rescue plan as soon as possible.
The Crude Oil with delivery for February fell below $39 in New York. The coming year will deeper the recession as the bottom is still not reached. We can see prices down to $32 for barrel predict Scott Brown Energy expert in World-Signals.com. The next plan meeting of OPEC is schedule for March 2009. But the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may meet before the schedule summit to cut again the oil production Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said. The OPEC target is the price of crude oil to jump to $75. In these levels the production will be winning, as the oil companies will invest in new shelf investigation.
The New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales continue to fall. The latest report today show drop of 7.6%, the biggest decline since January 1989. The New Home Sales for November down to 407K by 419K for prior month. The Existing Home Sales continue drop to 4.49M by 4.91M. The bottom is still not reached said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. We probably will see the level of New Home Sales below 300K in 2009 while Existing Home Sales may drop below 3.5 millions. Currently the average price of New Home Sales drop to $220,400, while Existing Home Sales price down to $181,300. The housing sector crisis will deeper in 2009 based on the rising unemployment and the total panic by the world financial crisis.
The biggest 3 US carmakers are save for few months. The United States biggest 3 carmakers will be support with billion of dollars injection to avoid bankruptcy. The biggest 3 will remain to exist of national proud. The deeper view shows that the recession will not end in 2009. This financial injection would not be enough to avoid the biggest three by bankruptcy. May be will be necessary about $80-$100 billions to save General Motors, Chrysler and Ford. It is sure the biggest three would not be the same biggest three after the end of recession said Victor Maksoudov Stock analyzer in World-Signals.com. In February-March 2009 the biggest 3 will request new financial aid predict by World-Signals.com. May be save but not so strong like the companies by 90’s. On the market is view that the shares remain close to zero as after the financial aid General Motor’s shares remain at $4.24 while the bottom was few days before at 1.69.
The creating and saving of jobs is the main target for faster avoid of the recession. The new United States president Barak Obama extended his plan to save and create new 3 millions jobs places. The Obama’s plan is very ambitions and if succeed the world biggest economy will out of recession faster. The world biggest economy will remain in recession in whole 2009 according to Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. The new U.S. president show exacts the next weak side of the U.S. economy - the jobs market. The unemployment rise will be the biggest problem for 2009 that will cause low spending, deeper of the housing market recession and much more.
The Bank of England unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentages to 3.00%. This is the lowest level since 1955. The banking and credit crisis is the main reason for the unexpected cut. The markets expect Bank of England to cut interest rates with half percent. At the same time European Central Bank cut the benchmark interest rates with half percent to 3.25%. We can see new interest rates cut from ECB, Bank of England and Federal Reserve till the end of the year said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The pound remain stable in spite the interest rates cut with fast movements into both directions. The dollar rises against the euro although the expecting ECB action.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 1 percent. This is a half-century low, in an effort to avert the worst U.S. economic downturn in the post-war era. The some of the traders predict even another quarter percent cut to 0.75%. The Fed probably will stop with the interest rates cut and will hold the interest rates at 1% for the coming couple of months said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. It is not except another cut to 0.75% even 0.50% but far in 2009. The dollar down close to 1.30 against the euro as the forecast is for levels up to 1.36.
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Less Than Expected to 2.25%. The key benchmark interest rates in Canada are 2.25% after the latest bank decision. The forecasts were for cut with half percent. The bank leaves a room for another cut to stimulate the economic and avoid recession worldwide comment George Marshal forex analyser in World-Signals.com.
The latest economic data show that U.S. economy is in recession. The rich economic reports from Wednesday show the 3-years bottom of U.S. Retail Sales. The sales of new cars are also down as everyone is looking for exit by the deep credit crisis. The Federal Reserve's index of New York manufacturing fall to –24.6 a record low level. The major U.S. companies continue existing due too the outside United States productions and sells. The U.S. economy is at the bottom and will pass couple of months when the economic start raising said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The recession from United States is on the way to come in Europe. Therefore we can see the Euro to fall to the levels below 1.30 trading at the moment at 1.35/36.
The U.S. congress probably will approve the multi billion plan to help the financial system. These speculations were stronger than the economic release today. The Initial Claims continue to jump to 493K, at the same time Durable Orders down to –4.5%. The crisis in the U.S. home sales continue, as the New Home Sales fall to 460 000 for the month by 515 000 a month ago. The second speculation moving the market is that Bernanke probably is turning to interest rates cut. The latest economic reports show necessary for economy stimulation. “It opens the door a bit further for rate cuts, although it doesn't signal that the committee is at that point already,” said former Fed researcher Brain Sack. The Fed probably will stimulate the economy than inflation fears and will cut the interest rates with quarter percent this year said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com.
The forth-biggest U.S. Bank Lehman Brother declares bankruptcy today. This is the biggest bankruptcy in the history. The bank with 158-years history does not succeed to pass through the biggest housing slumps followed by recession. At the same time the other oldest bank in United States Merrill Lynch was bought by the biggest U.S. consumer bank, Bank of America. The United States crisis depends shows by the both deals today. The dollar in high volumes jumps with more than 350 pips today. The traders try to escape by the not stable currencies and bet to the Japan yen. The dynamic on the markets will remain in the coming days as are possible new banks bankruptcy said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com.
The crisis in the U.S. continues in spite the dollar raises by the last few months. The brokers and the investors prepare for possible bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holding. The former Fed Chairmen Alan Greenspan warns the markets for huge bank bankruptcy. It seems that Lehman Brother is the next said George Marshal Forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The dollar stopped the resent gains against the euro after the Friday's report for the situation in U.S. jobs market. The Unemployment jumped to 6.1% while the Non-farm payrolls continue to fall. The United States economy is in recession and the dollar would not gain so much. It is time for correction add Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. The dollar loses over 400 pips against the euro for the last 36-business hours. The dollar can fall to 1.48 in near term.
The dollar continues to rise in spite Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bankruptcy. The tendency for strong dollar remain in power in spite the negative data for the U.S. unemployment rate from Friday and the crisis with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Fed placed the both super larger firms in special government-operated conservatorship. The politic of the Fed is to keep the both firms active till 2009 when the new U.S. president and administration will decide their future. In spite the deeper of the crisis in United States the dollar continue to rise against the euro in the European session. The traders are optimist that the Bush administration will end soon. The president who pushes the world biggest economy in recession will leave the post after few months time. The dollar will continue to gain due too the traders optimism for the future days the days far in 2009.
The crisis in the U.S. continues, as many investors do not see the bottom. The dollar stopped to lose against the euro since April 2008. After that the trading remain in the levels of 1.5280 and 1.5850. Since April is discussing whether the bottom is reached and when Fed will start to raise the interest rates due too the high inflation cause by the record energy prices. After the crash of U.S. Housing sector the crisis there spread over the rest economic sectors. We can say that the U.S. economy is in recession said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The billionaire investor Eli Broad even goes further and said that the U.S. economy is the “worst period”, as the housing market recovery remain in “several years” away. In near term World-Signals.com predict that the EURUSD trading will back at the levels above 1.60, as is possible levels of 1.65-1.68.
The Crude Oil set new record breaking for first time the psychological level of $140 per barrel. The new oil jump was caused by warns that Libya will cut the output. Libya want United States with the oil weapon due too the continue problems with the terrorist attack victims compensations. The OPEC president Chakib Khelil forecast that the Oil prices will reach $170 by the summer and the dollar weakened. The high oil prices will push the inflation in United States and Euro Zone where will be necessary to start with the interest rates rise. Scott Brown energy expert in World-Signals.com confirm the OPEC president forecast and add that on the market the Crude Oil will break above $200 in October-November 2008. He also said that at the end of the year the Crude Oil prices might touch $250. In this situation in the Euro Zone the inflation for 2008 will reach to 7% said George Marshal Forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. With such inflation the Euro Zone will fall into deep crisis and will be necessary strong interest rates rise.
World-Signals.com Forex analyses for the coming business week. The traders expect mix data this week for the situation of U.S. economy. The euro was trading at the levels above 1.56 against the euro on Friday close while the yen boost close to 107. The latest forecasts predict that the bottom in U.S. housing sector is not reached yen. The New Home Sales release this week will show new consecutive fall. The high energy prices probably will raise the spending together with the raising inflation. The U.S. economy remain in downtrend said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The dollar have not the power to recovery while the euro is also hurt by the high energy prices, raising inflation in the Euro Zone and the starting problems by the high exchange rates.
The dollar again break the levels above 1.55 against the euro on continue speculations for U.S. housing report today. The Fed decision to raise the interest rates will delay. It will be very stupid to raise the interest rates in a moment when the economy is in recession said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals. The Fed will raise the interest rates far at the end of 2008 or even in the beginning of 2009. The inflation hurt the Euro Zone where will be necessary fast action said Mr. Marshal. The European Central Bank is close to the time when will be necessary to raise the interest rates due too the very high inflation. We can see the dollar in new pressure above 1.60 said also Mr. Marshal. The U.S. economy is weaker than ever and recession is possible.
The dollar rose in expectation of positive Retail Sales today.
The dollar rose against the euro after speculations that the release of today’s important data for U.S. retail sales will be positive. The data release is expecting for 8:30 AM today. The consensus forecast is 0.5% from the prior –0.2%. Eventually stronger data will allow to the Federal Reserve to rise the interest rates further this year. The high inflation caused by the high-energy prices push the inflation. If the economy sends positive signals for recovery the Fed will start to raise the interest rates. It is too early to talk for change of the interest rates said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The U.S. economy is in recession and my personal forecast is that is necessary the Fed to hold the interest rates at 2.00% whole this year or even to cut the interest rates with another quarter percent said George Marshal.
The Crude Oil raises over $17 for a day. This is super historical record. After the biggest ever jump the oil set new record at $139.13 for barrel. The enormous oil rise starts at levels of $121.50. Israel is one of the reasons for the big jump. An Israel minister said that attack over Iran is necessary. Some analyzers predict the oil to jump to $150 this month. Mr. Scott Brown energy expert in World-Signals.com said if Iran is attack in new war in the Persian Gulf the oil prices would jump to $300. He confirms his earlier forecast for $200 even $250 at the year-end. But if we see new war in the Gulf against Iran the oil prices will jump to $300 at the beginning of the war. The high U.S. Unemployment rate also support the oil to make this huge jump close to $140. The oil probably will reach $150 till June 20th said Scott Brown and advice all investors to buy oil in expectation for new high trading levels.
European Central Bank continues to support the politic for strong euro. Today the bank signal that monitors the situation and the high inflation and may boost the interest rates. The inflation is high and the effect by the high oil prices will spread over the rest sectors of the economy that will boost the inflation too high. The ECB probably will necessary to raise the interest rates with more than 1% at the end of 2008 said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals. The strong raise of Euro push the crude oil to jump more than $7 for few hours. The market remain very unstable and the inflation will continue to raise while the oil will set new records very soon said Peter Mill forex expert and chief of World-Signals.com.
The dollar recovered against the euro and yen after the positive news for the world biggest economy. The traders predict that the situation of U.S. economy will allow to the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rates at the end of 2008. The high inflation caused by the high oil prices will stop the Fed with the interest rates cut. The forecast of George Marshal Forex analyzer in World-Signals.com is that Fed will raise the key benchmark interest rates with quarter percent in September, October 2008. The dollar was stopped with the recovery at 1.5462. It is necessary more evidences to continue with the recovery of the dollar said George Marshal. He also set his forecast that EURUSD trading level is 2008 is above the level of 1.48.
The dollar will fall today against the major currencies. The reason for the weak dollar today is the fears about the new worse report for U.S. Consumer Confidence. Also the New Home Sales release today will show continue with the Housing sector crisis. We can see the bottom in the U.S. housing sector at the end of summer even in autumn said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The dollar will test the levels of 1.60 in very short time. If the reports for the U.S. economy continue with the negative data the dollar will test successfully the levels above 1.60. The high oil prices would not allow to the U.S. dollar to recovery. In World-Signals.com see the crisis in United States at least to the end of 2008.
When the oil prices set new records day after day the energy politic is very important moment to stop the panic in the population by high inflation and raising prices. The one of the main energy source the oil is in low resources and is restricted. When the alternative fuels are the most important to stop the panic by absent of enough oil Europe develop project to stop the alternative fuels like methane, natural gas and others using in the transport vehicles. Few years ago Germany started with the plan to stop all nuclear reactors. If this bad plan happens the economy will stop. Finally Germany decides to back to the nuclear industry. After the idea for nuclear industry stop, Europe started plan to develop bio fuels as use agricultural production. The effect was high price jump of all foods. Europe is on the way to stop this plan. After serial of mistakes Europe make the new biggest mistake. The natural gas, methane, the cheapest gas in enormous resources will be not using. All these mistakes lead the world economy to super fuel crisis with everyday prices up of restricted resources. The energy expert Scott Brown of World-Signals.com shows three key fuel alternatives that Europe does not use. The industry, transport vehicles and motors to use alternative fuels like methane, hydrogen and electricity. The first two are in almost unlimited resources while are necessary improving of the technology. The electricity is possible to produce by cheaper nuclear industry and the free water, wind and solar station. The starting energy crisis will be the ever-biggest crisis in the world. Scott Brown provides the forecast that the oil prices will jump to $250 till the end of 2008. In some of the possible scenarios Scott Brown see chances the oil prices to jump to $300 till the end of 2008.
The markets remain mix in an absent of key economic events today. The trading in Euro-Dollar is flat. The trading is based over technical analyses. The pressure over the dollar remains as overall due too the raising speculations for continue of U.S. housing slumps. We can see new attacks on the forex market against the dollar said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. These attacks will test the levels of 1.60 again. The continue raise of Oil prices will continue to hurt the U.S. economy. There is not important event to move the market, as we will continue to see trading at the levels of 1.53/57 said Peter Mill forex expert in World-Signals.com. The Euro-Dollar today was trading at 1.5632 and recovery to 1.5573 in the time when U.S. market open today.
The dollar consolidates in mix information about the Fed and ECB interest rates politic. The latest speculations show that European Central Bank will hold the interest rates at 4.0% till the end of the summer and will rise in the autumn to 4.25%. The Federal Reserve still not sends clear signals for the interest rates politic. The speculations show that will be necessary new interest rates cut with quarter or half percent to stimulate the economy. Some other analyzers predict the Fed to hold the interest rates at 2.0% and to raise at the end of the year due too high inflation cause by the record oil prices. We can see new levels of 1.60 if there are not clear signals for the situation of U.S. economy said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The World-Signals.com forecast is the euro to fall to 1.48 even 1.46 against the dollar to the end of 2008.
In the last business week the Crude Oil set new trading record every day. Five days in the week with five new records. The crude oil jumped with $10 a week. This is an extraordinary week with so huge price jump. At this moment we can ask the following question: Who can stop the raising oil prices? At the same time Scott Brown energy expert in World-Signals.com answer: No one, but there are many people and events that could push the oil for new records. OPEC is almost at the top of the technology production capacity. There is oil but there is not technology to supply the oil in fast and cheaper method. The raising consummation from China and developing world making the production daily oil not enough. At the same time United States buy oil in huge volumes making new extra oil stores. We are close to the time when China will do the same and we are close to the time when the oil production would not be enough to supply the world economy. The describing scenario of Scott Brown is too black. The oil prices can jump to $200 much faster than our first forecast for the end of 2008. We can see the oil prices above $200 these summer’s months said Mr. Brown energy expert in World-Signals.com
The Crude Oil breaks the records by the last week in spite the strong dollar. Although that the dollar is trading almost 500 pips far from the record trading levels of 1.6019 against the euro the oil set new record. This is the first break of the oil above the levels of $120 per barrel. The tendency for continues rising of the oil prices is significantly this week when the dollar is stronger. The oil will move above $120 for barrel this month as will continue to close to the levels of $130 at the end of May said Scott Brown energy expert in World-Signals.com. Mr. Brown predicted the raise of the Crude Oil to $120 in April in earlier forecast this year. The last Crude Oil record is at $122.63 and that would not be all as the forecast remain for continue upward movement.
The dollar is on the way to make second winning week against the euro. The dollar gained almost 600 pips from the record trading level of 1.6019 on April 22nd. The gains of the dollar against the euro, Swiss franc, and yen will continue in the coming couple of days. It is very important the U.S. Non-farm Payrolls to support the dollar today. If the report is positive the dollar gains will continue. One of the reasons for the recovery of the dollar is the end of Fed interest rates cut. After the last correction with quarter percent the Fed will hold the interest rates at 2.00% for long time. The second reason for the recovery of the dollar is the first weakness signals for the Euro Zone. The growth in Europe is with new correction down. The problems for Europe comes while United States probably are at the bottom and will start moving up. The next fundamental news for the Euro Zone and United States probably will continue to support the raise of the dollar said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com.
The forecast of World-Signals.com for $120 for barrel happens. The world is near the top of the possible expansion of oil productions. There are not technologically chances for further increase of oil production in near-term. Also most of the oil stores are in difficult areas to produce, as is necessary time and high investments to supply. The Crude Oil almost touches $120 for barrel today and continue with the new records day after day. The forecast of World-Signals.com earlier this year for levels of $120 in April 2008 happen. We are forecasting the crude oil to trade at $120 in April in our earlier forecast: http://www.world-signals.com/forexnews/display-item.php?newsid=26 The new forecast is continuing of the raises of oil prices in whole 2008. We can see levels of $150 for barrel in September 2008 while at the end of 2008 the forecast of World-Signals.com is levels up to $160-$180. There are not chances for production expansion and also OPEC would not raise the production said Scott Brown energy expert in World-Signals.com. At the same time the consummation of oil expanded continues. China and India will continue to expand the consummation while at the same time the terrorists will continue to attack the pipelines. While at the same time at any recovery of the oil there are many traders ready to buy oil.
Europe starts to suffer by the high oil prices and the crisis over the Atlantic. The Germany Business Confidence down to the lowest level in the last two years. The biggest European economy Germany the locomotive of Europe comes in crisis period due too the high inflation caused by foods and oil prices jump. The International Monetary Fund cut Germany’s growth forecast for this year. Due too these problems for Europe the investors expect the European Central Bank action. It is expecting the bank to dump the inflation and to cut the interest rates within six months time. The dollar starts with fast recovery against the euro after the release of Germany Business Confidence during the morning European session. If the recovery continue the euro dollar trading should reach levels of 1.5550 said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com.
The Fed is close to the time when will stop with the interest rates cut. The forecast is that the Fed will cut the interest rates between quarter and half percent on April 30th 2008. Due too the high inflation in United States the Fed is close the time when will end the interest rates cut. We can see levels down to 1.50-1.75% and then the Fed will stop said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The United States recession deeper and will continue to spread over the world economy. The years of progress are over. It is time to see high inflation. The world is very close to the time when the banknotes would not means prosperity and the resources. The one of the most important investment these days is the oil. The oil would not turn the tendency for raising prices due too the limitation of the resource.
The recession is fact for the world biggest economy. The dollar again is at new record low level against the euro. The attacks against the dollar start during the European session today. It is close to see levels above 1.60 said George Marshal forex analyzer in World-Signals.com. The traders speculate against the poor situation of U.S. economy today. The attacks against the dollar started earlier today due too the concerns for the economic results for U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits. The new housing starts rise by the prior month slowly but the fact is the end of the winter and much more project houses start to build. The key future indicator Building Permits set new poor result. The recession is fact for the world biggest economy. This time recession with inflation add Mr. Marshal. The dollar set the new record at 1.5968 and is very close to break above 1.60. The Oil prices continue to jump day after day as by this way the dollar continue to lose. We can see levels as far as 1.65/1.67 if ECB and Fed not take together actions against the losing dollar.
The world economy is in crisis and we are not seeing the bottom yet. G-7 continues to monitor the forex market very closely and is concern about the fluctuations in exchange rates. Most of the analysers said that these words would help to the dollar not to lose so fast against the major currency. In World-Signals.com we do not believe the win of the dollar by G-7 meeting. The dollar will remain under new attacks and we can see levels of 1.60 and above this month said George Marshal analyser in World-Signals.com. At the same time the cut of oil production by OPEC will boost the oil above $112 up to $115 in very short time that will help to the euro to gain against the dollar above 1.60. The world economy is in crisis and we are not seeing the bottom yet, said George Marshal. The situation will out of control if all majors banks not start working together to avoid the consequences by the credit crisis and U.S. recession together with strong inflation in Europe. The inflation will remain the main concern for Europe. Europe will give to the world the inflation crisis, while U.S. spread the credit crisis. U.S. and Europe send to the world recession, high inflation, as the crisis already starts in Europe.
The market is very dynamic today. But as overall the volumes are not high. The traders start to speculate whether the U.S. economy is reached the bottom. The forecast is that the credit crisis is in the bottom and the economy will start to recovery. At the same time the Fed will cut the interest rates once with quarter percent or maximum to half percent. The Euro-Dollar touches 1.58 today during the Asian session. The dollar recovered during the European session. The tendencies for weak dollar remains as key for the dollar are the levels above 1.58. The chances for break above 1.5903 remain high said George Marshal analyzer in World-Signals.com. The forecast is for mix trading with movements close to 1.58 again and recovery down below 1.5670.
The dollar losing continue using the moment of speculations about the situation in U.S. jobs market. The traders speculate that today’s report will show U.S. Unemployment rate at 5.0%. At the same time the world biggest economy will lose over 50 000 jobs. Also speculations for new Fed interest rates cut and the words of Bernanke that the economy is in recession push the dollar at the levels close to the record low against the euro. “We can see levels of 1.58 today even close to 1.5903 the record levels since March 17th,” said George Marshal market analyzer in World-Signals. The forecast of World-Signals.com is new interest rates cut with half percent to 1.75% while is possible new cut with 75 bps to 1.5%. This will be the last interest rates cut according to George Marshal and will keep for at least 12-months.
The Euro declines for second day against the dollar after the release of UBS plan for additional capital of $15 billion. The bank is the biggest European bank loser from U.S. subprime crisis. An UBS problem is the first solid signal for the spread crisis in the European Union. Europe will suffer from U.S. crisis predict some expert’s very soon. After the UBS bank news was release follow mass euro sells. The recovery of the dollar will continue. The expert of World-Signals.com George Marshal forecast that the euro would down to 1.5450 against the dollar. Yesterday the EURUSD was trading at 1.5896 just 6 pips away from the ever time record. After that the EURUSD recovered to 1.5653 during the morning European session.
The dollar finished the trading week at the levels of 1.58. The dollar is very close to test again 1.59 in any new negative news for the U.S. economy or positive news for the Euro Zone. According to our analyses in World-Signals.com Euro Dollar trading will test 1.59 in the coming week. We can see levels of 1.60 up to 1.6150 in the first week of April said George Marshal analyzer in World-Signals. The speculations for U.S. jobs market are on focus now. Except that the chances for new interest rates cut with 50 bps to 75 bps raises day after day. In this situation the prediction are for successful break above 1.5902. On downturn the dollar should gain to 1.56 or 1.5550 but the chances for such movement are minimal.
The EURUSD is possible to turn back above 1.56 very fast. The dollar is again under pressure after the new recovery during the Asian session. Although that Europe celebrates the Eastern the market is very dynamic in low volumes. The rumors for deeper crisis and possible intervention far above the current trading levels push the speculations to open again new long positions. The traders continue to trade against the dollar said George Marshal analyzer in World-Signals.com. We can see fast trading move within two days to the records of 1.5905 add Mr. Marshal. The chances for continue of the dollar recovery decrease hour after hour. The expecting key U.S. fundamental events probably will push the dollar up above 1.56 till the end of Tuesday.
The dollar recovery today against the major currencies like the euro with about 200 pips, the British pound with over 300 pips, the Gold spot with more than 50 dollars, Crude Oil with over 5 dollars and other commodities and currencies. The reason for the dollar gains is profit taken. In very high volumes the investors turn back the profit. The euro not succeeds to break for second time above the levels of 1.59 and in second day not set new records. “The profit taken will continue elsewhere,” said George Marshal analyzer in World-Signals.com. In the coming days the pressure against the dollar will remain while most of the investors predict new 75 bps interest rates cut till the summer. If the Fed continues to cut the interest rates with 75 bps to 1.5% then we can say this will be the last interest rates change into downside.
The investors are ready for 100 bps interest rates cut. The investors are ready for tomorrow’s Fed interest rates cut with 100 bps to 2.00%. The Fed must cut the interest rates fast to levels of 1.5%-2.0% to be able to reduce the consequences by the credit crisis said Peter Mill expert by World-Signals.com. The Fed had to be aggressive with the interest rates politic during the Summer-Autumn 2007, as this decision will come too late to help to U.S. recession. The dollar probably will be set on new attacks to test the levels of 1.60 tomorrow. Together with the expecting new worse U.S. housing data the chances for the dollar are just over the banks intervention. “The situation is out of control everywhere the traders sell dollars,” said George Marshal economist in World-Signals. In this market with continue forecasts for dollar weakness the trading ideas remain in new sells of dollars.
The Gold, EURUSD and USDCHF with new records today. The traders prefer to sell dollars at the end of very dynamic business week, a week where the dollar was widely losing. The euro set new trading record against the dollar at 1.5686. At the same time the Swiss Franc was trading for first time below 1.00 @ 0.9987. The Gold finally break above $1000 with new record @ 1006.70 just 30 minutes after New York opening. The traders run away by the dollar and turn all investments in other investments like Gold, Oil and other currencies. The Gold breaks $100 levels between $900 and $1000 just for 2-months. The moving up will continue and we do not see other solid psychological level to stop the raising metal.
The fears that ECB and Fed will intervention on the market stop the traders by risky new bought of euro against the dollar. At the same time some of traders take profit by the last movements up. Still is early to talk for full profit taken process we believe in World-Signals.com. If follow profit taken process the EURUSD trading will turn down to levels of 1.5250. Most of the traders wait for levels of 1.5500 where the forecast is to open new long with target of new record level. The dollar was supported after the release of European consumer prices and wages rose more than economists forecast, as leave room to ECB to lower the interest rates in the second half of the year. The EURUSD was trading today just before the start of European session at new record of 1.5650. Some traders already speculate when are possible interventions as the forecasts show levels of 1.60 for such intervention.
The U.S. Retail Sales were worse than expected today. U.S. Retail Sales for February down to –0.6% from the prior month of 0.4% and forecast for 0.2%. At the same time the Retail Sales ex-auto for February down to –0.2% by prior 0.5% and forecast of 0.2%. The U.S. market continues to suffer by the almost starting recession. At the same time the weekly initial claims remain unchanged from the prior week at 353K by forecast for 353K. The news for worse than forecasting U.S. Retail Sales was widely expecting during the European session and the market generate this news already. In the first minutes after the news the dollar up slowly against the majors as just 3-hours before was trading at new record against the euro @ 1.5626. The all factors are against the dollar these days and there are not signs for support for the currency of the world biggest economy said Peter Mill by World-Signals.com.
The Crude Oil breaks above $110 for first time. The Crude Oil set new record at $110.15 during the end of U.S. session. The Crude Oil breaks above $100 for first time on February 22nd 2008. Just 22 days after this psychological break above $100 the crude oil break $110. The raising of the oil would not stop. In World-Signals.com we predict trading levels in April 2008 of $120-$125. At the end of 2008 the Crude Oil will be trading at the levels of $180-$200. Many traders turn their investments in commodity sector. The oil is on the way to set new records every day while OPEC continue to hold the production at the same volumes and the dollar continue to suffer by U.S. recession. The traders use any turning down with $1-2 to buy again expecting new records. It is necessary strong support by OPEC and the central banks to stop the market panic.
Just intervention on the market will stop the falling dollar. The Fed measures to support the dollar with $200 billion was positive just for 16-hours. After the report for Euro Zone Industrial Production the dollar lose and is close to the record trading level against the euro from yesterday. It is expecting to see try to set new record today. The possibility to see trading of EURUSD above 1.55 is more than 75%. The industrial production in the Euro Zone raise much more than the expectations up to 0.9% from the consensus 0.3, 0.4%. While the Fed action to prevent the recession and credit crisis is with long-term meaning the moment conditions remain strong negative for the dollar. To help for the dollar is necessary just one action. This was the action that happen in 2000 when ECB intervention on the market. We at World-Signals.com believe that is necessary strong intervention on the market at least twice time to turn the tendency of falling dollar.
Today the Fed makes the first support for the dollar by many times. For first time the dollar gain so much against the euro after the very disappointed reports for the U.S. growth forecast and the better than expected Euro Zone and especially Germany Sentiment Index. The dollar was trading at 1.5493 against the euro during the noon in Europe. The Fed finally takes action as announced plan for support of the credit market crisis with fresh $200B available through weekly auctions. Just for 3-hours after the news the dollar gain over 200 pips against the euro. If the Fed measures are adequate and continue to support the dollar in near-term the trade should back at the levels below 1.50. The Fed statement today is signal that finally the Fed is care about the crisis in U.S. mortgage sector. But it is necessary more steps to stop the falling dollar.
On the world market the situation is just like a hard crisis. Record level of Oil prices, Gold prices, Euro Dollar, Dollar Swiss Franc. The investors sell dollars and move to metal trading and commodities. The Gold prices will reach $1000 this month while the Oil prices moving sure above $100. The forecast of World-Signals.com is in March to see the Gold at levels of $1050-$1100, at the same time the Oil at $110/120 while EURUSD will be trading at levels of 1.55 and the Swiss franc will be equal to the dollar even will be trading at 0.98/0.99. The Fed prepare to cut the interest rates again, but it action is too late. The U.S. economy sends many signals to the world that the crisis is deep and come into recession. It is came black time for U.S. and the dollar.
The dollar remains stable after Existing Home Sales. The dollar keeps the positions from Friday. The consolidation process of Euro-Dollar at 1.4800/30 continue after the better than expected U.S. Existing Home Sales. The forecast for January was 4.80M while the release data at 10 AM today was 4.89M. The Existing Home Sales still going lower from the prior month at 4.91M. The dollar trading is in very low range today as still is waiting for new signs for the situation of the world biggest economy. The traders expect tomorrow’s key Consumer Confidence report that in the last month was at very low-level signal for recession in United States. At the same time the oil prices remain close to $100 for barrel that continue to push new negative signals for the U.S. economy.
The dollar recovery against the euro was for very short time. Although the good U.S. fundamental data include higher inflation and almost stopping fall of new housing starts the dollar lose the gains within 4-hours time. The traders continue to consider the euro as very attractive currency and buy at any better levels. The record oil prices above $100 make the traders very nervous. The dollar recovery during the early U.S. morning to 1.4613 but very fast lose 100 pips and at the moment is trading at 1.4717 one hour before the U.S. close. The latest U.S. economic events should be considered as positive but the fears in the investors together with the record oil prices send new negative signals for the dollar. In the coming few days the oil will hold the trading levels above $100 while the dollar will be under pressure elsewhere said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com.
The British pound after the temporary and speculative recovery against the dollar starts to suffer. During the morning European session today the traders in panic sell pounds. The first nationalization of bank since 1984 is fact. The suffering bank Northern Rock will be nationalize that send very bad signals for the situation in U.K. bank sector. The pound lose more than 120 pips for just few hours against the dollar. The pound will continue to suffer as the crisis deeper and is widely expecting Bank of England to cut the benchmark interest rates couple of times this year. The forecast of World-Signals.com is continuing selling of pounds. The pound will lose against the dollar in short-term and long-term period. We see chances for tiny recovery of the pound in mid-term period said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com. The key support at the moment is form as psychological level at 1.90 while the technical support is at 1.9337.
The dollar continues to lose against the euro and Swiss franc after Bernanke speak for the economy weakness. The latest movement is based on speculative trading. The latest economic reports show some positive signals in U.S. Retail Sales and Trade Deficit. At the same time there are many signals for starting crisis in the Euro Zone also signals for starting cut of Euro Zone interest rates. On the other side the recession in the world biggest economy is still in doubt and the Fed and Bush administration will invest to avoid the recession. The latest dollar weakness is absolutely speculative and do not show the real fundamentals said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com. The recovery of the dollar was stopped first by the technical support but after that was not supported. At the end Bernanke again send negative signals for the dollar that effect is already in progress on the forex markets.
The traders continue to search direction for the Euro-Dollar trading in the first day of the new week. The trading today was based on technical trading. The traders also continue to speculate with the situation of the U.S. economy, but this time the worries for the European economy rising also. Some signals by the Euro Zone show-starting crisis like the crisis on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. The dollar will continue to take advance against the euro this week said Peter Mill by World-Signals.com. We expect in near-term the dollar to test at the levels below 1.44 against the euro. We see chances for successive test. The taking measures by the Fed and U.S. administration of the president Bush are normal strong and should support the U.S. economy. At the same time ECB president continue with the firm politic about the interest rates. This will be not measure on time, because the crisis in the Euro Zone is on daily order.
BoE to cut the interest rates with quarter percent today. The one of the top news today is the Bank of England policy meeting. The investor’s consensus is that the bank will cut the key benchmark interest rates with quarter percent. This will be the second interest rates cut after the start with credit crisis on the island. The first bank suffering by the problems with the U.S. mortgage sector in Europe and UK was Northern Rock. Bank of England keep the highest interest rates among the four key banks in the world. The starting recession in U.S. cause some problems in UK that problems will widen if BoE not act fast. Bank of England should cut the interest rates with half percent or to make new quarter percent cut on the next meeting said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com. We at World-Signals.com predict Bank of England to make at least 3 corrections down with quarter percent this year. The pound loss against the dollar and is necessary to break below 1.9337 the record low since January 22nd 2008. If the pound break below this level is expecting test of the levels below 1.90 in near term.
The euro failed to battle with the dollar for new record. The result of the fail to break above 1.4960 was recovery of the dollar to levels below 1.48. The new week will be a week of speculation news that will send new negative signals to the dollar and U.S. economy. There are strong interest of many investors and banks to keep the dollar as low as possible. The traders expect the key ISM Services on Tuesday, as is expecting reading above the key level of 50 where levels up means continue expanding of the economy. The consensus forecast is for level of 53.0. The key trading at the high levels of 1.4860/1.4940 is the strong resistance where many traders are ready to sell in expectation for recovery of the dollar. The chances for euro gains against the dollar are minimal. It is expecting recovery of the dollar in the coming week. But the break above 1.4960 will be critical for the dollar stability in the coming couple of months.
The dollar is in very delicate situation close to the record low level against the euro. Any strong action by the traders will break the key resistance levels of 1.4960 and the trading will move above 1.50. The break of this psychological level will start real panic on the markets. The panic will move the dollar at 1.52-1.53 very fast. It is very important for the dollar to not beak above 1.49 in these days. The market is ready to accept new half percent interest rates movement down to 3.00%. But Bernanke is unpredictable and always surprises are possible. The U.S. economy still is possible to avoid recession said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com but it is necessary adequate actions of the Fed and Barnanke.
The optimism for the situation of U.S. economy is at the lowest level since the start of the crisis for U.S. mortgage sector. The expectations are high that Fed action was not enough this week when the Fed cut the benchmark interest rates with 3/4th of the percent. The forecast is the Fed to cut the interest rates with half percent to 3/4th of the percent. May be many traders memory Bernanke speech few months ago when he said after half percent interest rates cut that is the last cut? May be the traders who believe to Bernanke are too low already. It seems that Bernanke do not know what doing and how to avoid the almost starting recession. I do not see chances for strong U.S. economy with Bernanke said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com. This man make step after step from bad to worse. The chances for U.S. economy to recovery were high but after Bernanke actions the chances are minimal already.
In the period when there are not key economic events the most important for the traders is the technical trading together with the speculations about the Fed and ECB interest rates politic. Most of the traders use the very good bottom of EURUSD @ 1.4365 and open long positions in high volumes expecting new high levels. Although that the situation in the European Union is not clear with forecast for slow down of economic growth together with cutting of the key benchmark interest rates. At the same time the fears of U.S. recession come into Europe and most of the economists predict worse situation in the Euro Zone. It is widely expecting the Fed to cut the interest rates at the end of January with 50 to 75 bps while ECB to cut the interest rates with 50 bps to the end of 2008. In World-Signals.com predicts that ECB have to cut the interest rates more than 50 bps to the end of 2008, while for the Fed this interest rates correction have to be the last of the serial correction by the last couple of months.
The dollar was strongly supported by European Central Bank council member Yves Mersch who said that ECB should exercise caution as risks to economic growth mount, prompting investors to bet the ECB is shifting its stance toward a cut in interest rates. The crisis in the US housing sector and the fears for expecting recession should come into EU warn ECB. If the leading economic in the world come into recession the chances for recession and serious economic crisis in EU are more than 50% said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com. ECB have to think earlier with the interest rates politic and instead to raise the interest rates to think for eventually cut and balancing between the inflation and the expecting problems in the Euro Zone.
The Gold spot continue to move to new records. Many traders already expect the psychological break of $1000 for the Gold after the touch of $900 this week. The investors trade just like the world is in war and the most important investments are the well knows precious metals. The Gold set new record on Friday @ 897.80 after 4 consecutive days with new records. In spite the situation with the dollar the chances for successive break above $900 in the coming few days are sure. World-Signals.com predicts levels above $1000 for the Gold in 2008.
The spot Gold set new record during the European trading at $876.20. It is ever time high level. The Gold move for first time the level above $800 in November 2007. The gold trading is close to test the next psychological level of $900 in the coming weeks. The traders sell any currency especially dollars and bet to sure investments like the Gold and Oil. The forecast of World-Signals.com is break above $900 in February 2008 and levels above $1000 in the mid of 2008. At the beginning of 2007 the gold was trading at the levels of $605 as move over $250 for a year or 40% raise.
Very disappointed reports for the US non-farm payrolls with rise of just 18K in forecasting of +70K. At the same time the Unemployment rate up to 5.0% with 0.2% higher than the forecast and 0.3% high than the prior month. The analysis in the consensus expectations do not show so big difference and may be in the coming month there will be correction of the these reports. The dollar breaks above 1.48 after the report versus the euro and is ready to close the record levels of 1.4950 from November 2007. At the same time Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com said that the traders prepare for trading levels of 1.50 this month.
It is better most of the U.S. consumers to make shopping at the last day of the year to help the economic using the very good prices in the shops and to forget about the job today. Stop working today and go to shopping is the best help for the U.S. economy that have to send positive signals in the beginning of 2008. For the last business day in 2007 the market is in very low volumes. Practically the trading will be dynamic today in these very low volumes. The start of 2008 is very important and many traders will follow the trading direction during the year the trading by the first week of 2008 direction. As overall today the dollar will make recovery against the majors currencies.
The U.S. Durable Orders send the one of the most important signal to the traders to start with the new fast sell of dollars. The dollar loses more than 300 pips against the euro during the trading of low volumes in the market holiday. In World-Signals.com predict new dollar lows with chances for test of the record low levels since November this year. The situation for the dollar and U.S. economy remain black while at the same time the European Central Banks continue to support the strong Euro. In this situation the dollar is one the losing position again. The market situation changed very fast and the dollar is again the loser by this situation said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com.
Optimism for the world biggest economy keeps the dollar stable at the end of the year. Just a day before the holiday the traders prefer to close their short EURUSD positions, but the tendency for new dollar recovery after the holiday remains. The dollar will test the levels below 1.40 to the end of 2007 or at the beginning of 2008. The U.S. economy is in good condition and after the holiday will send positive fundamental signals. In World-Signals.com the tendency is for positive news for the U.S. economy and continue recovery of the dollar. We expect test of 1.40 in very short time probably the end of the year before.
The British pound fell below the level of 2.00 and even test the levels of 1.99 today after the solid decision by Bank of England to cut the interest rates with quarter percent this month. The traders speculate by the statement today that BoE is ready to cut the interest rates again in the beginning of 2008. The recovery of the dollar against the pound will continue, as the key supports are form at 1.9800 and the levels of 1.9550/1.9600. These both levels will be tested till the end of 2008. We at World-Signals.com hold short positions in target of 1.19600 in near term.
The year 2007 we at World-Signals.com call the year of the highest inflation in the whole world. This high inflation comes in the world biggest economy after the Friday’s consumer price index report. Almost all countries of the world suffer by extremely high inflation this year. The inflation this year was cause by couple of factors one of the most important is the high oil prices and the weak dollar. The rumors and fears for the starting recession in U.S. together with the problems with the world economic growth send the currency investments as losing. Finally this high U.S. inflation causes the Fed to think about the new interest rates correction. The high inflation would not allow to Bernanke to cut the key benchmark interest rates again. The dollar is attractive currency again and many traders will start to accumulate dollars in expectations for recovery. The dollar there is broad space for recovery after the huge losses during the last couple of years.
This time the Fed follows the expectations and supports the dollar and U.S. economy with normal quarter percent interest rates cut. The Federal Reserve cut the key benchmark interest rates to 4.25% from 4.50% today to stimulate the housing sector and the mortgage crisis. At the same time Fed keep the high interest rates still higher than the ECB. In the coming 1-3 months will decide whether the Fed action is successive. If the U.S. economy continues to suffer the Fed is ready to cut the interest rates again. Fed action was adequate this time after not appropriate politic in the last couple of months said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com. The dollar will start to gain while on the other side ECB signal for interest rates couple of months with not real action. These speculations by ECB not help to the dollar and aim to push the dollar as low as possible against the euro add Peter Mill.
There are many interests from European Central Bank and Federal Reserve to keep the dollar as low as possible and use any moment to send the dollar to the last records against the euro. The dollar is under pressure due too the continue speculations about the economic slowing down and the crisis with U.S. housing sector. The Fed will cut the interest rates, as the act with quarter percent will be helpful for the economy and for the dollar. Ben Bernanke but sometimes is ready to surprise the market and will be happy to see the dollar under new attack from the major currencies. We do not believe in the strong dollar with Bush and Bernanke said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com.
Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rates with 25 bps to 5.5% for first time in two years. The reasons for the interest rates cut were the credit costs and the falling housing prices. The most of the traders expect BoE to cut the interest rates on the next meeting but BoE fast with the decision. Probably it will start serial of interest rates cut by BoE in the coming months said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com after the decision of BoE today.